【行业研究报告】吉林碳谷-国内碳纤维原丝生产龙头,行业景气度上行+市场份额一家独大

类型: 深度研究

机构: 东吴证券国际经纪

发表时间: 2023-01-06 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-01-06 14:10:33

Keywords:#Capacityexpansion
InvestmentThesis
◼Knownas“kingofnewmaterialsinthe21stcentury”,carbonfiberiswidelyusedin
◼Knownas“kingofnewmaterialsinthe21stcentury”,carbonfiberiswidelyusedin
downstreamindustriesandseesrisingprosperity.Carbonfiberisknownas“kingof
newmaterialsinthe21stcentury”becauseofitslightweightandcorrosionresistance
quality,anditsperformanceissignificantlysuperiortotraditionalmaterials.Carbonfiber
hasbeenwidelyusedinaerospace,railway,windturbineblades,automotivelightweight,
industrial,andotherfields.1)Demand:asperAtaMachinery(Guangzhou),
global/China’sdemandforcarbonfiberin2030/2025willexceed400,000/159,200ton,
+338.98%/+155.27%from2021.WithindependenttechnologyR&Dandupgradeoflocal
carbonfibermanufacturers,wesawrapiddevelopmentandgradualimportsubstitutionof
domesticcarbonfiber.2)Downstreamapplication:in2021,windturbineblades,sports
&leisure,andaerospaceaccountedforthelargestdownstreamdemand:
33,000/18,500/16,500ton.Windpower:comparedwithtraditionalcompositematerialof
fiberglass,carbonfiberhasalightweighteffectof20%-30%,whilemaintainingmore
beneficialcharacteristicsofrigidityandstrength.Byadoptingthinairfoilwithhigher
aerodynamicefficiencyandincreasingbladelength,carbonfibercanimprovewind
utilizationandannualelectricitygenerationtoreducethecomprehensiveusecost.Ata
Machinery(Guangzhou)forecaststhatthewindpowermarketrequires190,000-200,000
tonofcarbonfiberby2030(33,000tonin2021).Aerospace:useofcarbonfibercomposite
materialsincivilaircraftgraduallyincreaseswiththedevelopmentofcivilandcommercial
aviationindustry,suchasinB787,A350andC919.DevelopedbyCOMAC,C919utilizes
12%ofcarbonfiber.AccordingtoCOMAC’swebsite,ordersofC919amounttomore
than1,000,whichrequire>5,000tonofcarbonfibercompositematerials.
◼CorecompetitivenessofJilinTanguCarbonFiber(JLTG):leadingtechnology,high
customerstickiness,dominantmarketshare,scaleeffectandregionaladvantages.1)
Productandtechnology:JLTG'smassproducedlarge-towcarbonfiberofstablequality
enablesthecomparisonofdomesticcarbonfiberwithinternationalpeers'products,with
evensuperiorperformanceinsomenon-high-endproducts.Certainpriceadvantagesof
JLTG'sproductsdrivetheimportsubstitutionofdomesticcarbonfiber,especiallylarge-
towcarbonfiber.2)Customerandbrand:thankstohighqualityandrelativelylowprice,
JLTG'scarbonfiberprecursorisrecognizedbycustomersandadoptedbymajordomestic
carbonfibercompaniesdirectlyorindirectly.3)Costandscale:duetohightechnical
productionbarriersandexpensiveequipment,dilutioneffectofR&Dandfixedassetcost
forcarbonfiberprecursorsisconsiderable,leadingtosignificantscaleeffects.Of61,400-
tondomesticcarbonfiberprecursorsusedin2021,32,600tonwasproducedbyJLTG,
indicating>50%ofdomesticmarketshare.4)Regionaladvantages:asoneoftheindustry
clustersforcarbonfiber,JilinisgreatlysupportedbyJilinprovincialandthemunicipal
government,leadingtocertaintechnicalcoordinationadvantageswithintheregion.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:WeexpectJLTGtoachieveEPSofRMB2.27/2.82/3.72in
2022-2024,indicatingP/Eof22x/17x/13x.ConsideringJLTG'sleadingpositioninthe
industry,weinitiatewitha“Buy”rating.
◼Risks:Pricefluctuationofrawmaterial,highconcentrationofcustomers,newproduct
developmentrisk.
PricePerformance
MarketData