【行业研究报告】华电国际-新型电力系统下火电支撑性电源价值重估，容量电价变革火电电价机制

#Newrequirements#Newpolicies
InvestmentThesis
◼Revaluationopportunitiesofthermalpowerinitsfunctiontransformationunderthe
◼Revaluationopportunitiesofthermalpowerinitsfunctiontransformationunderthe
newpowersystem:asatypeofstableenergynotaffectedbyweathercondition,thermal
powerplaysaprominentroleinthenewpowersystem.Since2020,wesawpower
shortagesfrequentlyastherapiddevelopmentofwindandsolarpowerhasputforward
higherrequirementsforthepowergridandthemulti-energycomplementarityofthepower
system.Givenfrequentpowershortagesintheprocessofcarbonneutralizationaswellas
localimbalanceofpowersupplyanddemand,webelieveflexibleenergyincludingthermal
powerandenergystoragewillbeakeysolution.Marketexpectationsarelikelytoreshape
concerningpillarpositionofthermalpowerunderthenewpowersystem,whichintegrates
complementaryenergiesincluding"thermal,energystorage,wind&solar".Multi-energy
complementaritiesarereflectedwhenwind&solarareout-of-workwhilethermal&
energystorageshouldcontributetomaintainthedynamicbalanceofpowersupply.Given
itslowcostandweatherproofstability,thermalpowerplaysamoreandmoreimportant
roleinthenewpowersystem,andweseerevaluationopportunitiesforthermalpower.
◼Revolutionofcapacityprice&market-orientedpricecreatesnewprofitmodelfor
thermalpower:since2022,severalprovincesincludingShandongandGuizhoulaunched
pilotprogramsofcapacitypriceforthermalpower,creatingprofitsforthermalpower's
involvementinfrequencyandpeakloadmodulation.Currentincentivemechanismof
providingflexibilitymodulationserviceisnotmatureyet,andcoalpowersetslackthe
motivationtoactivelyprovidethefrequencyandpeakloadmodulationservice.Givenno
technicalobstacletotheflexibilitytransformationofcoalpower,webelievethemain
reasonliesintheproblematicincentivemechanism.
◼Huadianpowerinternational:thermalpower&pumpedstorageasthemainbusiness
whileparticipatinginrenewables&coal:Huadian'smainbusinessincludesthermal
power&pumpedstoragewhileitsequityparticipationinrenewables&coalcreates
considerableprofitsandlowcost.In2021,thecompanydivestedthewindandsolarpower
generationprojectsandinjectedtheseprojectsintoHuadianNewEnergyCo.,Ltd.,to
enjoyinvestmentincomewithastakeof31%.Weseerevaluationopportunitiesasthe
attributesofthermalpowerindustrytransformfromcyclicaltoutility.Asimportantparts
ofthenewpowersystem,pumpedstorageshouldenjoyagrowth-stockvaluationgivenits
highgrowthrate.DivestingHuadianNewEnergyensureshealthycashflowandasset
operationstatuswithoutlargeCapEx,whileequityparticipationenablesthecompanyto
enjoyinvestmentincomefromgrowthofrenewables.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:WeexpectHuadianpowerinternationaltoachieverevenue
ofRMB113.94/127.94/138.78bnin2022-2024(+9.1%/+12.3%/+8.5%yoy),andnetprofit
ofRMB0.353/3.873/4.287bn.Weinitiatewitha“Buy”rating.
◼Risks:Policyrisk,coalpricevolatility,macroeconomicrisk.
PricePerformance