【行业研究报告】房地产-2023年房地产行业投资策略：曙光金海近，晴雪玉峰高

Overviewofthisroundofrealestatedownsidecycleandrecoverypath.Asthisroundofrealestatedownsidecyclebeganwithdeleveraginginthesupply-sideandhousingbubble&financializationhasbeencurbedcurrently,webelievethatcreditrepairhousingbubble&financializationhasbeencurbedcurrently,webelievethatcreditrepairofsupply-sideandbalancesheetrepairofrealestateenterprisearetheprerequisitesforindustryrecovery.Realestatepoliciesfromlocaltocentralauthoritieshaveplayedcrucialrolesinbothsupplyanddemandsides,whilepolicystrengthandfrequencyaregraduallyincreasing.Moreover,thecredit,bond,andequityfinancingchannelsfordevelopershavebeenintheclear,andtheupcomingfinancingwillimprovethecashflowofqualityrealestateenterprises.Theindustryrecoverywillfollowthepathof"cashflowrecoveryofdeveloper-stimuluspoliciespromotionindemand-side-expectationreverseofallparties-housingsalesrebound",andwearestillatthefirststage.Themediumtolong-termhousingdemandinChinaisstable,andwepredictthatcommodityhousingcanstillmaintainasalesscaleof1.2billionsquaremetersby2030.Accordingtoourpreviousreport"HowmuchroomisleftforChina'srealestatemarketinthefuture",China'sannualnewurbanresidentialdemandisexpectedtobearound1.26billionsquaremetersin2022and1.2billionsquaremetersin2030.Demandforhousingupgradewillovertakethedemandforgrowingurbanpopulation,andbecomethelargesthousingdemandin2026.Adjustmentinthesupply-sidedrivestheoptimizationoftheindustrylandscape.1)Sales:salesofqualityprivateenterprisesandleadingcentralstate-ownedenterpriseshavestabilized,andnationwidesalesareexpectedtopickupafter2Q23.Themarketmaynolongerbe"scale-only"inthefuture,andthosewhocontinuetoexpandwillmainlybeleadingcentralstate-ownedenterprisesandafewhigh-qualityprivateenterprises.Thehousingenterprisesthatfocusontheregionalmarketsandproductqualitywillgofurther,andmostprivateenterpriseswillbecomeregionaldevelopersaftersurviving.2)Landauction:ascentralstate-ownedenterprisesandurbaninvestmentgroupsareexpandingtheirbalancesheets,weexpectthelandmarkettolagslightlybehindhousingsalesin2023.Arealreboundforthelandmarketin2023dependsonthetimewhenthelandacquisitionabilityofprivateenterprisesrecovers.3)Financing:centralstate-ownedenterpriseswithcreditadvantageshavebetterfinancingcapacityandtheirrelativefinancingadvantagemaycontinuetoexpand,whiletheconfidencerecoveryofprivateenterpriseslagsbehindthewholeindustryanditwilltakemoretimeforthemtorepairthebalancesheet.Wearemodestlyoptimisticaboutinvestment,cautiouslyoptimisticaboutsales,andnotpessimisticaboutnewconstruction.Undertheneutralscenario,weexpectChina'srealestatesalesarea,newconstructionarea,investmentamount,andcompletedareatoincreaseby-3.9%,-13.1%,-3.5%,and-3.9%YoYrespectivelyin2023.Recommendations:Inthepasttwoyears,therealestateindustryhasexperiencedsignificantfluctuationsandindustrylandscapechanges.Anobviousdifferentiationwasseenamonglarge-scalehousingenterprisesinsales,landacquisition,andfinancing,especiallybetweencentralstate-ownedenterprisesandprivateenterprises.Webelievethatthistrendofdifferentiationisdifficulttochangeintheshort-term,andaneweraisapproachingfortheindustry.Thedeveloperswhocansurvivefromthisperiodofindustrycontractionwillenjoyanewindustrypatternwithasignificantlyoptimizedcompetitiveenvironment.Atthispoint,werecommendfocusingon1)realestatedevelopmentbusiness:thecentralstate-ownedenterpriseswithexpansionwilling&abilityandqualityprivateenterpriseswhocanrescuefromdesperation,suchasPolyDevelopmentsandHoldingsGroup,ChinaMerchantsShekouIndustrialZoneHoldings,ChinaResLand,GemdaleCorporation,SeazenHoldings,GreentownChinaandsoon.2)agent-constructionbusiness:astheindustryisexpandingwithcounter-cyclicalattributes,currentleaderssuchasGreentownServiceGroupwillclearlybenefit.Risks：More-than-expecteddownwardpressureontheindustry;modelmeasurementbias;more-than-expectdevelopmentofCOVID-19;lower-than-expectedpolicyeasing.IndustryperformanceRelatedreports