【行业研究报告】贝壳-Beke After Ten Seasons; Initiate with Buy

16Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|InitiationKeHoldings(BEKEUS)BekeAfterTenSeasons;InitiatewithBuyHowmanyroadsamanmustwalktobecomeaman?Thefinancialcrisisin2008(newhomesales-19%YoY)wasthefirstlifeordeathtestforLianjiabutitpulledthroughthechallengingfourseasonsviaanti-cyclestoreopeningtoboosttopline.ThenChina’srollingoutRMB4tnstimulusin2009madeLianjiathedistantmarketleader.2Q21-3Q22werethenextsixseasonswheneverythingwentagainstBEKE(founder’spassingaway,developersdefaults,hardlandinginpropertymarket(-30%YoY),commissionratecapriskandwhat’snot).ItstillsurvivedcomfortablywithRMB1.3bnnetprofitsin9M22andnetcashofRMB60bn(incl.STinvestments),partlythankstovisionaryACNplatform.Forwardlooking,WerecommendBuyonBEKEas1)InST,BEKEisthekeybeneficiaryoffastexistinghomesalesrecoveryandcommissionratecapoverhanglifted.2)InLT,itsdominateadvantageinitsonline-offlineACNcanfurtherwidenthegapviasteadyandmeaningfulservicefeeandNPcontributionat15%.AlsoShengduisontherighttracktobuildsynergyandnarrowthelossin2023E.Soallinall,weexpectBEKEtodeliverRMB5.6/7.0bnNPin2022/23E(10%>consensus).Catalysts:4Q22beat;policyrelaxationinTier1cities.Risk:Commissionratecap<2%.Antitrustinvestigation.BEKEisbestpositionedtobenefitbetter-than-expectedexistinghomesalesin2023E:Weexpectasharprecoveryinexistinghomehomesalesin2023E:Weexpectasharprecoveryinexistinghomemarkettorise17%YoYdueto1)strongerdemand-boostpoliciestobeinitiatedinTier1cities.2)Newhome’sdeliveryandqualityissuearestillpushingbuyerstopreferthesecond-handmarket.3)SupplyinexistinghomemarketmaycontinuetospikeafterthiswaveofCOVIDcasualties.Thisisevidencedbythestrongexistinghomesalespickupofmajoreightcitiesin3Q/4Q2022(+26%/+34%YoY)after-30%in1Q/2Q.Therefore,weforecastBEKE’sexistinghomeGTVtogain20%YoY.Asfornewhomesales,weexpectBEKEtodeliverflattishGTVastheindustryisstillfacingsupplyshortageandbuyers’confidencedrop(butbaddebtisimproving)Overhangalmostliftedonbetter-than-fearedcommissionratecap:BEKE’sunderperformancevs.otherplatformnames(BABA,MEITUAN,JD)wasmainlyduetotherumouredcommissionratecaptobesetat2%(BEKE’s2.4%).However,thisoverhanghasbeenalmostliftedafterthelatestnewssaidthecapwillbeinarangeof2-2.5%.Thismeanseachcitycoulddetermineitsownrateandtheblendedrateismoretowards2.25%ratherthan2%.Also,oursensitivityshowstheimpactofhavinga2%commissionratcaponDCFisonly10%,whichislimited.ProvenACNecosystemgraduallybecomeskeyprofitcontributor:Theresilientservicefeecontributionandhighmargin(80%+CM)helpedBEKEpassthroughthedifficult2022E(weestimateNPcontributionof35%).ThetruthisthatourcalculationshowsACNhelpedconnectedstorestoachievemoreresilientGTVinabadyearandaggressiveoneinagoodyear.Withexistinghomemarketrecovery,weexpect20%servicefeeYoYin2023E.ShengduFurniture’srampuptakestimebutlessadragnow:Duetotheturnaroundofexistinghomemarketandaccelerationofhomedeliveryin2023E(+10%YoY),weexpectShengdutonarrowthenetlossin2023Evs.-RMB800mnin2022E.Moreimportantly,Shengdu’ssynergywithBekehasbeenproveninBeijingwhereisLianjia’shomecourtthathelpeddivertclientstoachievebreakevenin3Q22.However,itstilltakestimetoproveinothercitiesasthemarketsizeandefficiencyarelessthanthatinBeijing.InitiateatBuywithTPofUSD23.3/share:WeexpectBEKEtodeliverRMB5.6/7.0bnNPin2023/24E(10%>consensus)mainlyonhighergrowthassumptioninexistinghomesalesandlesslossinShengdu.OurTPisequivalentto34/27x2023/24EPE(historicalmeanat38/34x)or1x2024EPEG,similartointernetplatformnames’currentvaluationat1xPEG.