【行业研究报告】中国建筑兴业-2022年股东净利将同比增加不少于40%

Maintain"Buy"rating.CurrentEPSforecastsfor2022-2024areHK$0.189/HK$0.269/HK$0.382,YoY
increaseof40.0%/42.3%/42.0%,respectively,correspondingtoanEPSCAGRfor2021-2024of40.1%.
CurrentTPisHK$2.66,equivalentto9.3x/6.6x/4.6x2022/2023/2024EV/EBITDA.Wemaintainourearnings
forecasts.
Shareholders'netprofitin2022willincreasebynolessthan40%YoY,inlinewithexpectations.We
estimatedCSCDevelopment’s(the"Company")revenueandshareholders'netprofitin2022tobeHK$8,625
estimatedCSCDevelopment’s(the"Company")revenueandshareholders'netprofitin2022tobeHK$8,625
millionandHK$416million,YoYincreaseof37.0%and42.6%,respectively.TheCompany’sprofitalert
announcementisbasicallyinlinewithourforecast.AsatSeptember30,2022,thebacklogwasHK$13,861
million,YoYincreaseof22.2%,andthebacklog-revenueratiowas2.2times;backlogwasabundant.
Demandforhigh-endcurtainwallsinHongKongwillcontinuetoincrease,andthegrowthpotentialis
seriouslyunderestimatedbythemarket.TheHKSARGovernmentformulatedthe"10-yearDevelopment
BlueprintforSportsandRecreationFacilities"andthesecondphaseofthe"10-yearHospitalDevelopment
Plan",whichwillstartin2023and2024,respectively,andwillgreatlyincreaseinvestmentinsportsand
hospitalfacilitiesinthenexttenyears.Inaddition,the2022PolicyAddressproposedaseriesofplansto
attracttalent,hopingtoattract35,000outstandingcandidatestostayinHongKongeveryyear,whichwill
createalargeamountofnewresidentialhousingdemand.Wepredictthatprivatedeveloperswillfocusmore
onmid-tohigh-endpropertiesinthefuture,developedtoappealtothesehigh-incomegroups.These
continuedincreasesininfrastructureandprivateinvestmentwillsignificantlyboostdemandforhigh-end
curtainwalls.Wethinkthegrowthpotentialofhigh-endcurtainwallsinHongKongisseriouslyunderestimated
bythemarket.Asthelargesthigh-endcurtainwallprojectcontractorinHongKong,theCompanywillbethe
mainbeneficiary.
Riskwarning:1)Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected;2)possibleinflation
exceedingexpectationsmaycausepolicytightening;3)worldwidepandemicsituationmightsee
fluctuation.