【行业研究报告】汇通达网络-Quality growth with advanced profitability

WekeepconfidentonHTDtodeliverabove-industrialgrowthandmargin
improvementinthelongrun.2H22E&1Q23Emomentumwouldbedisruptedby
epidemicoutbreak&reopeningimpact(forecastingrev/adj.netprofit+16%/17%
YoYin2H22E),butwellanticipatedbythemarket.WeexpectHTDtobenefitfrom
consumptionrecoverypostreopening,andforecastitsFY23Eearnings>30%
YoY,withmoderatebuthigh-qualitytoplinegrowth(+21%YoY).HTDannounced
voluntarylock-upundertakingsmadebycertainshareholderslastweek,
suggestingconfidencefromshareholders.Tofactorinepidemicimpactand
qualitygrowthtarget,wetrimmeditstoplineby5-26%inFY22-24E,withnewTP
atHK$63.2(0.25xFY23EP/Sor43xFY23EP/E).Morecatalyststocome:1)
potentialpositiveprofitalert,and2)bizrecoveryfrom2Q23E.
Factoringinepidemicoutbreak&reopeningimpact.Weexpect2H22E
rev/adj.net+16%/17%YoY,13%/12%belowconsensus.2H22Epotential
rev/adj.net+16%/17%YoY,13%/12%belowconsensus.2H22Epotential
slowdownshouldbemainlyattributableto:1)risingcovidcasesafter
reopeningtodampengrowthofvehiclesandautoparts,household
applianceandhomebuildingmaterials;and2)Foxconnincidenttoaffect
consumerelectronicsmomentum(forecastingrev+27%in2H22E);and3)
moderateservicebizexpansionformacrochallenges(forecastingrev+57%
in2H22E,vs.prior+109%YoY).However,weexpectitsmarginexpansion
trendintact,inwhichGPMwouldseesequentialgrowthin2H22E(upto
3.3%)andOPMupto1.2%(+0.4pptsHoH).WeseehighvisibilityforHTD
todeliver>30%earningsgrowthinFY22E.2H22Edecelerationdisruptedby
epidemicshouldbeforgivableandtransitory,andwesuggesttomoveinto
itslong-termsharegainandadvancedprofitability.
QualitygrowthwithcontinuousmarginimprovementinFY23E.Looking
intoFY23E,weexpectHTD’spriorityshifttohigh-qualitygrowthand
profitabilityenhancementratherthanaggressiveexpansion.Assuch,we
resetitstopline/bottomlinegrowthat21%/32%YoYinFY23E(stilllargely
aboveindustrialestimatedGMVof+12%YoY).Wekeepconfidentonits
above-industrialgrowth,backedby:1)resilientdemandinlow-tiermarkets
withcategoryexpansion;and2)consumptionrecoverypostreopening.We
expectservicebusinessrev+30%YoYinFY23E.1Q23Emightbesofton
coviddisruptions,butiswellanticipatedbythemarket.
MaintainBUY.Tofactorinepidemicimpactandpriorityonqualitygrowth,
wetrimmedHTD’sFY22-24Etoplineforecastby5-26%.Afterfinancial
resetting,wekeeppositiveonitsseculargrowth(21%/30%topline/bottom
lineCAGRinFY22-24E)andbettermarginoutlook.OurSOTP-basedTP
wasadjustedtoHK$63.2.