【行业研究报告】兖煤澳大利亚-Thermal ASP in 4Q continued to beat benchmark

PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEACCESSKEYTOOURREPORTSONBLOOMBERG:CMBRCoalMiningWayneFung,CFA(852)39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkKatherineNg(852)37618725katherineng@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)45,357Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)2952wHigh/Low(HK$)39.55/17.60TotalIssuedShares(mn)1,320Source:BloombergShareholdingStructureYankuangEnergy62.26%ChinaCindaAM13.74%Others24.00%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth5.5%-5.7%3-mth22.7%-6.4%6-mth9.7%4.7%Source:Factset12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactsetAuditor:ShineWingAustraliaRelatedReports1.YancoalAustralia(3668HK)–3QthermalcoalASPwayabovebenchmark;apositivesurprise-21Oct20222.YancoalAustralia(3668HK)-FurtherriskreductionafterprepaymentofUS$1bndebts–3Oct20223.YancoalAustralia(3668HK)-Scarcityvalueyettobeexplored;ResumecoveragewithBUY–19Sep2022BUY(Maintain)TargetPriceHK$53.0(PreviousTPHK$53.0)Up/Downside+54%CurrentPriceHK$34.35120Jan2023YancoalachievedthermalcoalASPofA$430/tin4Q22(+121%YoY)whichishigherthanAPI5price(themajorbenchmarkof5500kCal;+32%YoY).ThisisthesecondquarterthatYancoalsuccessfullybeatthebenchmarkthrougheffectivecoalsalesstrategy.ThisstrongASPhelpedoffsettheweakattributablecoalsales(-30%YoY)asaresultofraindisruptions,takingtherevenueup41%YoYin4Q,basedonourcalculation.Onthecostside,whileYancoal’sunitcashcost(excludingroyalties)wouldlikelybeclosetothehighendoftheguidance(A$84-89/t)in4Q22,weexpectthepotentialsalesvolumerecoverywillhelpstabilizetheunitcostin2023E.WecontinuetobelieveYancoal’ssolidbalancesheetandstrongfreecashflowwillofferroomforpotentialdividendincrease.WehaveleftourearningsforecastunchangedasweareawaitingthefullsetoffinancialresultsinFeb.ReiterateBUYandNPV-basedTPofHK$53.Thestockisattractivelytradingat2.4x2023EP/Eor18%yield(netof30%dividendtax).ASPremainedstrongin4Q22.ThermalASPsurged121%YoY(-12%QoQ)toA$430/tin4Q22.Similarto3Q,Yancoal’sthermalASPin4QwasmuchhigherthantheaveragepriceofAPI5(US$141orA$214).Theabove-benchmarkASPwasdrivenbythecapacitytowashcoalandtheavailableofpurchasedcoalforblending.MetallurgicalASPincreased37%YoY(-10%QoQ)toA$389/t.TheblendedASPsurged102%YoY(-12%QoQ)toA$422/t.Declineinproductionvolumewellexpected.Attributablesalesvolumeofthermalcoal/metallurgicalcoaldropped34%/11%YoYto5.5mn/1.4mntonnes,duetoextremeweather,pandemicdisruptionsandlabourshortage.In2022,thetotalattributablesalesvolumewas29.3mntonnes,down22%YoY.SubstantialdebtreductionsinceOct2021.Asatend-2022,YancoalhadagrosscashbalanceofA$2.7bn.SinceOct2021,YancoalhasrepaidUS$2.76bn(~A$4bn)ofdebts.Keyrisks:(1)Declineincoalprice;(2)easinggeopoliticaltension;(3)higher-than-expectedproductioncost.EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ETurnover(A$mn)3,4735,40311,29310,3119,501Change(YoY)-22.155.6109.0-8.7-7.9Corenetprofit(A$mn)-1,0407914,5383,8003,245CoreEPS(A$)-0.790.603.442.882.46Change(YoY)n/an/a475.7-16.3-14.6ConsensusEPS(A$)n/an/an/an/an/aEV/EBITDA(x)n/a4.01.11.31.5PE(x)n/a9.81.92.42.8PB(x)1.61.31.00.90.8Yield(%)0.08.418.214.712.6ROE(%)-18.313.961.238.528.9Netgearing(%)68.731.6NetcashNetcashNetcashSource:Companydata,CMBIGMestimatesNote1:Thermalcoalpriceassumptions:A$350/300/250pertonneinFY22E/23E/24E.Note2:Dividendyieldisnetofdividendtaxof30%.