【行业研究报告】天合光能-2022年业绩预告点评:Q4组件出货和盈利继续提升,23年看好量利双升

类型: 其他公告点评

机构: 东吴证券国际经纪

发表时间: 2023-01-30 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-01-31 11:14:50

InvestmentThesis
nEvent:TrinaSolar(TS)releasedits2022earningsestimate.TS’s2022profitincreased
by90-123%YoYtoRmb3.42-4.02bn,andits22Q4profitincreasedby57%-150%YoY
(-10%-43%QoQ)toRmb1.02-1.62bn.TS'sasset(powerstation)impairmentlosswas
(-10%-43%QoQ)toRmb1.02-1.62bn.TS'sasset(powerstation)impairmentlosswas
Rmb800-900mn,andexchangelosswasaboutRmb200mnin22Q4.TS’sinvestment
incomefromsiliconwaferswasaboutRmb0.8-1bn,whichbasicallyoffsetsits
impairmentandexchangelosses.
nTS’sPVmoduleshipmentsincreasedrapidlyandtheprofitperwattreachedanew
high.WeestimatethatTS’sPVmoduleshipmentshaveincreasedby75%YoYto43GW
in2022andreached13GWin22Q4.Weestimatethattheprofitperwatthasincreased
by0.01Rmb/WQoQto0.09Rmb/W,bringingprofitofRmb1.1-1.2bnin22Q4.The
recordprofitperwattwasmainlyduetothereductioninpolysiliconwaferpricesand
freightrates.TSexpectthatitsPVmoduleshipmentswillincreaseby50%YoYto
60-65GWin2023.WeareoptimisticaboutTS’sprofitabilityin2023:1)Highly-priced
existingordersandrapidlydecreasingrawmaterialpriceswillhelpimproveprofitability;
2)WeexpectTS'sTOPConcellstoshipabout20GWin2023andenjoyanew
technologypremium;3)Wafercapacityexpansionhelpsreducecosts.
nTS’sdistributedsystemishighlyprofitable,andenergystoragebusinesshasbegun
toturnlossesintoprofits.WeexpectthatTS’sdistributedsystemhasshipped6-6.5GW
in2022and2GW+in22Q4withprofitperwattat0.16Rmb/W.Withtheexpected
declineofPVmodulepricesin2023,IRRofdistributedPVsystemwilllikelyincrease.
WeexpectthatTS’sdistributedPVsystemshipmentwillincreaseby45%+YoYto
9-10GW.TS’ssolarpanelmountshaveshipped4.3-4.5GWin2022,ofwhich1.7-1.8GW
oftrackingmounts.WeexpectthatTS’ssolarpanelmountshipmentswillincreaseby
100%+YoYto7-8GWin2023.TS’senergystoragebusinessmainlyengagesinthefield
ofdomesticlarge-scaleenergystorage.TS’senergystorageproductshipmentsin2022
were1.8-2GWh,andin22Q4quicklyreachedalargevolumeofabout1.5GWh,turning
lossesintoprofits.WeexpectthatTS’senergystorageproductsshipmentswillbeabout
3-4GWhin2023,generatingpositiveprofits.
nEarningsForecast&Rating:WemaintainBuyratingwithTPatRmb98.7
(correspondingtoPEratioat30xin2023),consideringTS’squicklyincreasing
shipmentsofPVmodulesandenergystorageproducts.WereviseupTS’searning
forecastandexpectthatthenetprofitwillincreaseby108%/90%/35%YoYto
Rmb3.75/7.14/9.65bn(previousvalueatRmb3.70/6.61/9.06bn)in2022/2023/2024
respectively.
nRisks:Weaker-than-expectedpolicysupport,intensifiedmarketcompetition.