【行业研究报告】派能科技-2022年业绩预增点评：全年出货预计翻倍增长，单位盈利环增超预期

Revenue(RMBmn)2,0635,88613,54719,566
Growth(YoY%)84%185%130%44%
Netprofit(RMBmn)3161,2572,8013,868
Growth(YoY%)15%298%123%38%
EPS(RMB)2.048.1218.0924.98
P/E(X)150.5037.8516.9912.30
InvestmentThesis
nEvent:Pylonreleasedits2022earningestimateon12/1/2023.Pylon’s2022estimated
netprofitisRmb1.18-1.31bn,upby273-314%YoY;22Q4estimatednetprofitis
Rmb535-665mn,upby723-923%YoYand40-75%QoQ,higherthanmarket
Rmb535-665mn,upby723-923%YoYand40-75%QoQ,higherthanmarket
expectations.
nPylon’sproductshipmentsincreasedby20-30%QoQandtheprofitperunit
growthQoQexceededmarketexpectationin22Q4.WeexpectthatPylon’sproduct
shipmentswillincreaseby20-30%QoQto1.2-1.3gwhin22Q4duetocapacity
expansionof4gwhduringthequarter.WeexpectthatPylon’sproductshipmentswill
increasebymorethan120%YoYto3.4-3.5gwhin2022andmorethan100%YoYto
morethan8gwhin2023.ProfitperunitofPylon’sproductwasabout0.45-0.5Rmb/wh
in22Q4duetotheincreaseofpriceperunit(transmittheincreaseinthecostoflithium
carbonatetothedownstream)andreductionoffreightandexchangecosts.Weexpectthe
profitperunitwillmaintainatahighlevelin2023duetostablepriceperunitandcost
reductionfromscaling.
nThefluctuationofEuropeanelectricitypricesdoesnotchangetheeconomyof
residentialenergystorage,ofwhichthemarketdemandisverylikelytodoublein
both2022and2023.In2022,theriseinenergycostsinEuropehaspromotedthehigh
growthofresidentialPVsystem.AlthoughtheEUhasrecentlyissuedapolicytorestrict
thepriceofnon-gaselectricityunder180euros/MWh,resultinginfluctuationsof
electricityprices,theterminalelectricitypricestillremainsatmorethan40eurocents,at
whichresidentialPVenergystoragesystemsarestilleconomical.Weexpectthatthe
installedcapacityofresidentialenergystoragesystemwillincreaseby296%/105%YoY
to11/23GWhin2022/2023inEuropeandwillincreaseby250%/127%YoYto
19/38GWhin2022/2023globally.Consideringchannelinventory,globalresidential
energystoragesystemshipmentswillincreaseby339%/101%YoYto33/66GWhin
2022/2023.
nEarningsForecast&Rating:WemaintainBuyratingwithTPat542.7Rmb
(correspondingtoP/Eat30xin2023),consideringrapidgrowthandintensifying
marketcompetitionofenergystoragebusiness.WereviseupPylonTechnologies’
earningforecastandexpectthatitsnetprofitwillincreaseby298%/123%/38%YoYto
Rmb1.257/2.801/3.868bn(previousvalueatRmb1.131/2.756/3.865bn)in
2022/2023/2024respectively,withcorrespondingP/Eat38/17/12xrespectively.
nRisks:Intensifiedmarketcompetition.