【行业研究报告】吉利汽车-2H22E net profit to almost double HoH

MaintainBUY.WeprojectGeely’snetprofitin2H22Etorise95%HoHtoRMB
3.0bn.WeestimateGeely’sFY23Enetprofittorise21%YoYtoRMB5.5bnunder
ourassumptionof1.53mnunits(vs.thecompany’stargetof1.65mnunits).We
alsoforecastGeely’snew-energyvehicle’s(NEV)salesvolumetosurge74%
YoYinFY23E,whichcouldbeapositivecatalystforitsshareprice.
WeprojectGeely’s2H22EnetprofittobeRMB3.0bn.GeelyendedFY22
withsalesvolumeof1.43mnunits(0.98mnunitsforGeely,0.15mnunitsfor
withsalesvolumeof1.43mnunits(0.98mnunitsforGeely,0.15mnunitsfor
Geometry,0.07mnunitsforZeekr,0.18mnunitsforLynk&Co,and0.06mn
unitsforLivan).Totalsalesvolumein2H22rose17%YoYand33%HoHto
0.82mnunits.Weexpect2H22Erevenuetoriseatafasterpace(40%HoH)
amidhigheraveragesellingpricescontributedbyZeekrandthe“ChinaStar”
seriesundertheGeelybrand.WeprojectGeely’sgrossmargintowidenfrom
14.6%in1H22to15.5%in2H22Eamidhighersalesvolumeforallthebrands.
WeforecastGeely’s2H22Enetprofittorise23%YoYand95%HoHtoRMB
3.0bn,assumingZeekr’sreportingunderGeelystillfollowsHKFRS(R&D
capitalizationisallowed),althoughitisseekinganIPOintheUS.
WeexpectGeely’sNEVsalesvolumetosurge74%YoYandnetprofitto
rise21%YoYinFY23E.Geely’stotalNEVsalesvolumequadrupledinFY22
to0.32mnunits,or23%oftotalsalesvolume.WeprojectitstotalNEVsales
volumetosurge74%YoYto0.57mnunits(0.19mnunitsforPHEVsunder
GeelyandLynk&Co,0.14mnunitsforZeekrand0.24mnunitsforGeometry
andLivan)inFY23E,or37%ofourprojectedtotalsalesvolumeof1.53mn
units.Theautomakerplanstorolloutabout10newmodelsinFY23E,nineof
whichareNEVs.WeestimateGeely’sgrossmargintowiden0.8pptsYoYto
15.9%inFY23Eamidgreatereconomiesofscaleandpossiblerawmaterial
pricedrop.Accordingly,weprojectGeely’snetprofittorise21%YoYtoRMB
5.5bninFY23E,almostunchangedfromourpriorforecast.
Valuation/Keyrisks.WevalueZeekrat2.5x(unchanged)FY23Ecore
revenue(excludingViridi’sbatterypacksalesandR&Dservices),whichwould
resultinHK$109bnfor100%Zeekr’svaluation.WevalueGeely’sallother
businessesexcludingZeekrat15x(unchanged)ofourFY23EP/E.We
maintainourBUYratingandtargetpriceofHK$16.50(SOTPvaluationwith
detailsinFigure4).Keyriskstoourratingandtargetpriceincludelowersales
volumethanweexpect,especiallyNEVs.