【行业研究报告】中国海外发展-FY22E preview: page not yet turned

FY22Eearningspreview:Afteralackluster3Q22operationdata
(Revenue/EBIT-59%/-77%YoY),weexpect2022Ecorenetprofitsto
(Revenue/EBIT-59%/-77%YoY),weexpect2022Ecorenetprofitsto
decline20%YoYtoRMB29bn.Themainreasonsaremainlybecauseof-36%
YoYin9M22EBITandCOVIDimpactonconstructionin4Q.GPmarginis
estimatedtolowerfurtherto21%in2022Evs.23%in2021.Asfor2023E
NP,itislikelytoremainunderpressureanddeclineanother7%YoYdueto
15%salesdeclinein2022.Wesuggestinvestorsmaypayattentiontoits
2023Esales,whichistheleadingindicatorofearningsandalsothekeyto
theassetturnover/ROE.
2023Esalesoutlooktowardspositiveterritory:COLI(excl.COGO)
finished2022withonly15%salesYoYdecline,whichisinthefirstcategory
justbehindYuexiu,CRL,BinjiangandCMShekou.Thisismainlyattributed
toitsabundantsellableresourcesinhigh-tiercities(90%ofitslandbank).
Lookinginto2023E,weexpectCOLItodeliverapositivesalesgrowthas1)
ithasmaintainedsteadylandinvestmentsin2022withlandacquisition/sales
at31%.ThiscanhelpCOLImaintainatleastsimilarsellableresourcesin
2022.2)Animprovingsell-throughrateonreopeningandpolicyrelaxation.
Asforthegratitudeofrecovery,itisstillofhighuncertaintywhichdepends
onifanyrelaxationinTier1cities.
TPcutandMaintainBuy.Wecutour2023/24Eearningsby9%/12%to
reflectalowersalesbookingandmarginpressure.AlsowerevisedownTP
by8%touseadeeperdiscounttoNAVat60%(previouslyat55%).We
maintainBuyratingonforeseeablesalesgrowth,salesmarginrecoveryin
2023Eandattractivevaluationat0.6xPB(vs.its5-YRhistoricalaverageof
0.8x,evennopremiumoverVankeHandMidea).