【行业研究报告】蔚来-4Q22E loss to narrow; FY23 sales to outperform

WeprojectNIO’s4Q22EnetlosstonarrowQoQ,despitesalesvolumemiss.We
projectNIO’ssalesvolumetorise63%YoYto200,000unitsinFY23E.Weare
moreconservativeaboutNIO’sbreakevenpointthanconsensus,aswebelieve
itmayneedmass-marketbrandtoachieveitgivenitsheavyinvestmentsinR&D
andinfrastructure.NIO’spremiumimagecouldlayoutthefoundationforits
upcomingmass-marketbrands.
4Q22Eearningspreview.NIO’s4Q22salesvolumerose27%QoQtoabout
40,000units,lowerthanitspriorguidanceof43,000-48,000units.Weproject
40,000units,lowerthanitspriorguidanceof43,000-48,000units.Weproject
NIO’s4Q22Erevenuetorise22%QoQamidloweraveragingsellingprice
duetohighersalesproportionoftheET5(nearly30%).Weestimate4Q22E
grossmargintobelargelyflatQoQ.Accordingly,weexpectNIO’s4Q22Enet
losstonarrowslightlyQoQtoaboutRMB3.8bn.
FY23Eoutlook.WerevisedownourFY23Esalesvolumeforecastfrom
230,000unitsto200,000units,duetointensifyingcompetitionandpossible
weaker-than-expected1Q23Esales.WeexpectthesalesvolumeoftheES8,
ES6andEC6todropYoYinFY23E,despitenewupgradesbasedonNT2.0,
whiletheES7/EC7,ET5/ET5wagonmaybecomesalesdriversforFY23E.
WeprojectNIO’sgrossmargintowidenby2pptsYoYto15.7%inFY23E,
aidedbyhighersalesvolumeandpossiblebatterypricedrop.Weestimate
NIO’sR&DandSG&Aexpensestobeabout15%and18%ofitsrevenuein
FY23E,respectively.Accordingly,weforecastitsFY23Enetlosstonarrowa
bitYoYtoRMB11.3bn,muchlowerthanconsensus.
NIOmayneedmass-marketbrandtoturnprofitable.Wehavebeenmore
conservativeaboutNIO’sbreakevenpointthanconsensusfromthevery
beginning.AlthoughmanagementtargetsbreakevenforNIO’scorebusiness
in4Q23E,weprojectthecompanytocontinuemakinglossinFY24E,given
itshugeinvestmentsinR&Dandcharginginfrastructures.However,we
forecastitscashflowtoturnpositiveinFY24E.NIO’scurrentcashreserves
shouldbemorethanenoughtosupportitsbusinessesatleastthroughout
FY24Eevenwithoutanynewfinancing,basedonourcalculations.
Valuation/Keyrisks.WemaintainourBUYratingbutlowertargetprice
slightlyfromUS$25.00toUS$23.00,stillbasedon3.5xofourrevisedFY23E
revenueestimates.Keyriskstoourratingandtargetpriceincludelowersales
volumeandmarginsthanweexpect,aswellasasectorde-rating.