【行业研究报告】五粮液-动销显韧性，期待来年提质高效发展

Forecast&Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024E
Revenue(RMBmn)66,20974,63587,12799,505
Growth(YoY%)16%13%17%14%
Netprofit(RMBmn)23,37727,20332,42137,570
Growth(YoY%)17%16%19%16%
EPS(RMB)6.027.018.359.68
P/E(X)29.6825.5121.4018.47
InvestmentThesis
◼2022hasseenimprovementinbothscaleandquality;thesignatureBaijiu’ssales
performanceexhibitedresilience:AmidstCovid-19andasluggisheconomy,Wuliangye
haskeptasuccessfulrecordinproductionandoperationsmanagement,makingprogress
inbrandbuilding,productioncapacitylayout,marketingreform,etc.Wuliangye'ssignature
inbrandbuilding,productioncapacitylayout,marketingreform,etc.Wuliangye'ssignature
Baijiu,Crystal,achievedstrongsalesperformancein2022.FromJanuarytoSeptember,
14outof21marketsinChinamaintainedpositivegrowth.Manyachieveddouble-digit
growthduringtheMid-AutumnFestivalandNationalDaypeakseason.Additionally,
ClassicWuliangyewereprudentlyshippedthroughouttheyear,carryingoutrepurchase,
volumecontrolandpriceadjustmentsmeasures,withafocusonbrandvalueimprovement
andconsumercultivation.Otherbaijiuserieswerealsocontinuouslyoptimized.
◼Maintainstabilitywhilestrivingtoimprovequalityandincreasevolumein2023:
Movingforwardinto2023,thecompanystrivesforbreakthroughwhilemaintainingsteady
growth.Asforproducts,asidefromconsolidatingthecorepositionofWuliangye8th
generation,thecompanyplanstostrengthenthemarketinfrastructureofWuliangye
ClassicbylaunchingClassic20andClassic30,andpromotetheR&Dandoperationof
thecustomizedspecialedition,whicharemoreexpensivethanthesignatureWuliangye.
Inaddition,thecompanyplanstosystematicallydevelopOldBaijiuandJarredBaijiuto
furtherenhancebrandvalue.Asformarketing,thecompanyaimstooptimizetargeting
strategy:maintainthetraditionalchannels,whilsttheincreasedvolumewouldbegeared
towardhigh-qualitysalesregions,newlyexpandedchannels,andpersonalizedproducts.
Theplannedsupplywouldbeinlinewiththeactualdemandofthelocalmarket,aswell
astheactualoperationalcapacityofthedealers.
◼Withupgradedrewards,marketconfidenceisexpectedtobefurtherbolstered:The
totalamountofincentiverewardatthisyear’sdealerconferenceincreasedsignificantly,
upby29%YoY.Thenumberofaward-winningdealersincreasedfrom2,279lastyearto
3,617thisyear,marking59%growthYoY.Ingeneral,2023willbeanimportantyearfor
consumptionrecovery,anditisalsoquitelikelythatthecompanywillachievedouble-
digitgrowththisyear.However,inadditiontohavingaclearlydefineddevelopment
strategyandimplementationmeasures,dealers’confidenceisimperativegiventhecurrent
marketconditions.Asaresultofwiderrewardcoverageandhighertotalamount,thestrong
incentiveisexpectedtoincreasetheconfidenceofchanneldealers.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:Inviewoftheimprovedcorporatemanagement,amore
favorableexternalenvironment,vigoroussalesperformance,aswellastheprogressive
implementationofthe14thFive-YearPlan,weupholdourpreviousearningsforecastand
expectthatthenetprofitwillincreaseby16%/19%/16%YoYtoRmb27.20/32.42/37.57bn
in2022/2023/2024respectively,correspondingtoPEratioat26/21/19X.Wemaintain
BuyratingwithWULIANGYE.
◼Risks:Uncertainmacroenvironment,weaker-than-expectedproductpriceraise,
resurgenceofcoronavirusinfections
PricePerformance
MarketData