【行业研究报告】满帮-数字货运龙头，引领货运效率持续提升

Keywords:#marketshareincrease
InvestmentThesis
◼Leaderofdigitalfreightplatformscontinuouslyimprovesitsmonetizationcapacity.
◼Leaderofdigitalfreightplatformscontinuouslyimprovesitsmonetizationcapacity.
FullTruckAlliance(FTA)isthelargestdigitalfreightplatforminChina.Byconnecting
shipperswithtruckers,FTAmatchescargowithtrucksandachievedGTVofRMB262.3bn
in2021.FTAbegantochargecommissionsonordersfromAug2020,bringingmeaning
flexibilitytoitsearnings.Withadvanceofbusiness,FTAachievedrevenueofRMB4.66bn
in2021(+80.4%yoy)andadjustednetprofitofRMB450mn.
◼Digitalfreighthelpsreducecostandimproveefficiency,andweexpectitsonline
penetrationratetoincrease.Duetoscatteredsupplyanddemandinthefreightmarket,
industryparticipantsareconfrontedwithinformationasymmetryandlowmatching
efficiency.DigitalfreightplatformslikeFTAimprovematchingefficiencyandhelp
industryparticipantsreducecostsbyaggregatinglong-tailusers.Asperourestimates,FTA
helpsdriversimprovetheirprofitmarginby~6%perorderbyimprovingmatching
efficiency.AccordingtoCIC,themarketsizeofroadtransportationreachedRMB4.0tnin
2021,withpenetrationrateofdigitalfreightplatformsof~10%.Demandforefficiency
improvementislikelytodrivethepenetrationrateofdigitalfreightplatformstoincrease,
andweexpectthemarketsizeofdigitalfreightplatformstoreachRMB523bnin2024.
◼Withhighbarriersofuseracquisition,weexpectFTA'sGTVtoincreaseasFTA
penetratestowardsfamiliardrivermarketandimproveitsfulfillmentrate.Asleader
ofdigitalfreightplatforms,FTAenjoyshighbarriersofuseracquisitiongivenscattered
shippers&trackersandnon-standardizeddemands.Bylong-termofflineexpansionto
acquirestabletruckers,FTAmaintainsitsleadingposition.Currently,FTAoccupiesalarge
proportionofstrangerdrivermarket,andweexpectittofurtherpenetratestowardsfamiliar
drivermarketwithimprovedservicequalityandmatchingefficiency.WeexpectitsGTV
toreachRMB336.4bnin2024withrisingfulfillmentrate.
◼Growingearningswithfurtherpotentialfrommonetizationrateimprovementand
newbusinessexpansion.Currently,thecompanymaintainsasteadypaceofcollecting
commission,andthegradualincreaseofcommissioncoverageandmonetizationrateare
likelytodrivetheimprovementofFTA'srevenueandgrossmargin.Webelievethatthe
marginimprovementperordercontributedbyFTAshoulddeterminethepotentialof
monetizationrateincrease.Giventhatmacroeconomyshouldcontinuetorecoverin1H23
andFTA'scurrentpaceofmonetizationisstillcautious,weexpectitsmonetizationrateto
reach1.1%/1.3%in2022/2023.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:WeforecastitsadjustednetprofitofRMB1.25/1.95/3.04bn
in2022-2024,withyoygrowthrateof178%/56%/57%.WeexpecttheCAGRofitsnet
profittoreach44.3%in2022-2027.Weinitiatewiththe“Buy”rating.
◼Risks:Lower-than-expectedrecoveryofusers,monetizationimprovement,macrosluggish.
PricePerformance