【行业研究报告】哔哩哔哩-Eyes on monetization potential and margin improvement trajectory

类型: 美股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2023-02-07 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-02-07 17:10:50

7Feb20237Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateBilibili(BILIUS)EyesonmonetizationpotentialandmarginimprovementtrajectoryWeexpectBiliwilldelivernarrowingadjustednetlosswhilerevenuegrowthcoulddeceleratein4Q22,butallthesearewithinexpectations.Marketislookingforsignsofmonetizationenhancement,self-propellinguserandecosystemgrowth.WecontinuetoexpectthatBiliwillbeontracktoachieveabreakevenonnon-GAAPbyend-2024E,drivenbygrowinguserbasethatimprovesmonetization.Bili’sstrongrecoveryfromtroughvaluationwasmainlyduetoimprovingmarketsentiment,tooutperformthesectorgoingforward,andthemarketexpectsBilitodeliverconsistentuserbasegrowthwhichwillenhancemonetization.Duetoimprovingmacroandpolicyoutlook,onlineads/gaming/socialplatformsallre-rated.Benchmarktopeers,ourSOTP-derivedTPisraisedtoUS$29.5(previous:US$21.0),translatinginto3.0/2.6xFY23/24EPS.MaintainBUY.Catalyststowatchin1H23E:1)better-than-expectedmarginimprovement;2)approvalofkeygametitles;3)inclusioninsouthboundstockconnect.Steadymarginimprovementdespitedeceleratingrevenuegrowth.WeforecastBili’stotalrevenuetogrowby6%YoYtoRMB6.1bnin4Q22E(3Q22:+11%YoY),mainlydrivenbythesolidgrowthofVASbusiness.Bilicontinuestooptimizeitsrevenue-sharingcoststructureandcontentinvestment,whichweexpecttosupportGPMtoimprovefrom19.0/18.2%in4Q21/3Q22to19.5%in4Q22E.Overall,weforecastadjustednetlosstonarrowfromRMB1.7/1.8bnin4Q21/3Q22toRMB1.6bnin4Q22E.Weexpecttheimpactoforganizationaloptimizationin2H22tobemorevisiblein2023E,furtherunleashingoperatingleverageandnarrowingadjustednetlosstoRMB4.2/1.8bnin2023/2024E.ResilientVASbusinessbutotherlinesremainunderpressure.WeforecastVASrevenuetogrowby20%YoYandaccountfor37%oftotalrevenuein4Q22E,drivenbytheresilientlivestreamingbusinessandthelaunchofseveralpopularanimetitles.AdsrevenueisflatYoYandrepresents26%oftotalrevenuein4Q22Eunderourestimate,asbrandaddemandwasweakandsponsorshipadrevenuefromBili’skeyeventsfacedhigh-baseeffect.Mobilegamebusinessremainsunderpressurein4Q22Eduetoalackofnewgames,withrevenuedownby9%YoYandequivalentto19%oftotalrevenuein4Q22E.Bili’shighly-anticipatedtitlePettyDerbyremainspendingforapprovalandtheresumptionofimportedgamelicenseinDec2022shouldbeapositivesignal.Weforecaste-commercerevenuetoincreaseby10%YoYtoRMB1.1bn(18%oftotalrevenue)in4Q22E,mainlyduetotherecoveryoflogistics.MaintainBUY.WeloweredFY22adjustednetlossforecastfromRMB7.0bntoRMB6.9bn,inviewofbetter-than-expectedcostoptimization,whilemaintainingFY23-24Eforecastunchanged.OurSOTP-derivedTPconsistsofUS$10.8/0.6forVAS/e-commercebusinesson2.7/0.5x2023EPS,andUS$9.9/8.2forads/gamesbusinesson20x/16x2023EPE.TargetPriceUS$29.50(PreviousTPUS$21.0)Up/Downside26.4%CurrentPriceUS$23.33ChinaInternetSaiyiHE,CFA(852)39161739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkWentaoLUluwentao@cmbi.com.hkYeTAOfranktao@cmbi.com.hkSophieHUANGsophiehuang@cmbi.com.hkEasonXUeasonxu@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)9,181.2Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)21.652wHigh/Low(US$)37.84/8.92TotalIssuedShares(mn)393.5Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureRuiChen12.6%Tencent11.2%Source:CompanydataSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-18.6%-28.3%3-mth99.2%73.8%6-mth-5.1%0.1%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetRelatedReports1.BiliBili(BiliUS)-Focusonmoresustainablegrowth–30Nov20222.BiliBili(BiliUS)-Userbaseandengagementgrowtharecrucial–26Oct2022EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue(RMBmn)11,99919,38421,90626,48230,752YoYgrowth(%)77.061.513.020.916.1Grossmargin(%)23.720.917.322.027.3Adjustednetprofit(RMBmn)(2,559.6)(5,478.1)(6,930.6)(4,163.2)(1,832.9)EPS(Adjusted)(RMBcents)(740.25)(1,442.44)(1,761.09)(1,057.89)(465.74)ConsensusEPS(RMBcents)(740.25)(1,442.44)(1,792.10)(1,029.41)(349.05)P/S(x)5.23.22.82.42.0Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates