【行业研究报告】永利澳门-VIP Direct Could Beat Expectations, Upgrade to "Buy"

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 国泰君安(香港)

发表时间: 2023-02-28 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-03-01 11:10:47

WeupgradeWynnMacau’sinvestmentratingfrom"Neutral"to"Buy"and
increasetargetpricetoHK$11.00,basedon11.5x2024EV/EBITDA.We
forecast2022-2024adjustedpropertyEBITDAof-HK$1.73bn,HK$2.57bnand
HK$8.03bn,respectively.WethinkWynnMacau’scurrentsharepricereflects
overlypessimisticviewsontheimpactoflossofVIPbusiness.Weforecastthatby
themiddle2024,WynnMacau’srevenuewillcatchupwithits2019level.
WethinkWynnMacaucouldsurprisethemarketwithmoreVIPjunket
WethinkWynnMacaucouldsurprisethemarketwithmoreVIPjunket
businessmigratingtodirectbusinessduring1Q2023thaniscurrently
generallyexpected.DuringChineseNewYear(CNY),WynnMacau’sdirectVIP
businessrevenuewasaround40%higherthanthatofCNYin2019,andmass
tabledropreached95%of2019ChineseNewYearlevels,withstrong
performancefromcoremasstopremiummass,whichincludedaportionofformer
VIPjunketplayerswhomigratedtodirectplay.
WynnMacau’ssharepriceissignificantlylowernow,whenCovidtravel
restrictionsaregone,thanitwasinMarch2021,whenCovidwasragingand
severecross-bordertravelrestrictionswerestillinplace.Now,withCovid
travelcontrolsfullydismantledandMacaogamingrecoveryalreadyunderway,we
thinkthatWynnMacau’scurrentsharepriceisundervaluedat50%belowits
post-CovidhighofHK$16.44.
Risks:Macroeconomicrecoverymaybeweakerthanexpected;pandemic
resurgence.
基于11.5倍的2024年EV/EBITDA。我们预测2022-2024年经调整物业息税折旧摊销前
利润分别为-17.3亿港元、25.7亿港元及80.3亿港元。我们认为永利澳门目前的股价反映
了市场对VIP业务损失的影响过于悲观的看法。我们预测,到2024年中期,永利澳门的
收入将赶上2019年的水平。
我们认为贵宾中介业务转为直销业务有望助永利澳门2023年第一季度业绩超预期。春节
期间,永利澳门的直销贵宾业务收入高于2019年春节约40%,中场赌桌投注额达到2019
年同期的95%,核心中场至高端中场的表现都很强劲,其中包括部分原贵宾中介客户转为
直销贵宾客户。
当新冠旅行限制取消后,永利澳门的股价现在仍明显低于2021年3月水平,当时新冠疫
情反弹并且有严格的跨境旅行限制。现在,疫情相关旅行管制措施全面解除,而且澳门博
彩业的复苏已经开始,我们认为永利澳门目前的股价被低估(比疫情后高点的16.44港元
低50%)。
风险:宏观经济复苏弱于预期;疫情反复。
Rating:Buy
Upgraded
6-18mTP目标价:HK$11.00
Shareprice股价:HK$8.240
Stockperformance