【行业研究报告】瑞声科技-4Q22 Preview: earnings recovery remains bumpy; Maintain HOLD

8Mar20238Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateAACTech(2018HK)4Q22Preview:earningsrecoveryremainsbumpy;MaintainHOLDAACwillreport4Q22resultson23Mar.Weestimate4Qrevenue/netprofittoincrease16%/18%YoYtoRMB5,579mn/250mn,slightlybelowconsensus,mainlydrivenbystrongerdemandinApple‘sacoustics/hapticsandToyo’sPMsalescontributiondespitepressureinopticssegment.Bysegment,weexpectacoustics/ED&PM/opticstogrow2%/31%/29%YoYin4Q22E.Lookingahead,givenAndroid’songoinginventorydestockingandApple’sweakseasonalityin1H23E,webelievedemandweaknessandloss-makingopticssegmentwilldragearningsrecoveryforAACinthenearterm.Thestockisnowtradingat16.4xFY23EP/E,whichisfairinourview.MaintainHoldwithSOTP-basedTPHK$15.62,implying14.1xFY23EP/E.4Q22Preview:strongEMD&PMandsloweropticsrecovery.BackedbyiPhone14cyclein4Q22E,weestimateacoustics/hapticssegmentwillgrow2%/12%YoYin4Q22E,whileAndroid’ssluggishdemandandintensecompetitionledtoweaknessinopticssegmentwithlowutilizationandASP/marginpressure.AsforPMsegment,drivenbysalescontributionfromnewlyacquiredToyo’sNBcasingandimprovingproductmix,weexpectrevenuewilljump110%YoY.Overall,weexpect4Q22Erevenue/netprofittogrow16%/18%YoYtoRMB5,579mn/250mn.2023outlook:Eyesonmarginrecovery,automotiveandAR/VR.Lookingahead,despiteindustryheadwindsin1H23E,webelievethemarketwillfocuson1)marginrecoveryofmultiplesegments,especiallyopticallens/HCM,2)progressofautomotiveacousticsprojectswithleadingChineseEVcustomersandtier-ones,and3)massproductionofnew3PVRpancakemodulein2023E.Inaddition,wearepositiveonsharegainpotentialofnewlyacquiredToyo’sPMbusiness.MaintainHOLDonfairvaluationat16.2xFY23EP/E.Whilewearepositiveon4Q22earningsrecovery,webelieveintensecompetitioninoptics,Android’sdestockingandApple’sseasonalweaknessin1H23Ewillbemajoroverhangforthestock.WemaintainHOLDwithnewSOTP-basedTPofHK$15.62,implying14.1xFY23EP/E.Tradingat16.4xFY23EP/E,thestockisfairlyvaluedinourview.TargetPriceHK$15.62(PreviousTPHK$15.4)Up/Downside(13.8%)CurrentPriceHK$18.12ChinaTechnologyAlexNG(852)39000881alexng@cmbi.com.hkClaudiaLIUclaudialiu@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)21,707.8Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)18.752wHigh/Low(HK$)22.30/11.14TotalIssuedShares(mn)1198.0Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureWuChunyuan22.0%PanZhengmin19.6%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-10.5%-7.2%3-mth4.1%-4.6%6-mth23.1%14.2%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetEarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue(RMBmn)17,14017,66720,36420,90921,744YoYgrowth(%)(4.2)3.115.32.74.0Netprofit(RMBmn)1,506.71,316.3834.21,188.51,299.2YoYgrowth(%)(32.2)(12.6)(36.6)42.59.3EPS(Reported)(RMB)1.251.090.690.981.08YoYgrowth(%)(32.1)(12.6)(36.6)42.59.3ConsensusEPS(RMB)nana0.680.981.27P/E(x)34.232.423.116.214.9P/B(x)0.00.00.00.00.0Yield(%)146.1154.4216.0307.8336.5ROE(%)7.35.93.75.25.5Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates