【行业研究报告】华润电力-从逆风到顺风的转变会在不远的将来,首予“买入”

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 国泰君安(香港)

发表时间: 2023-03-16 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-03-17 13:10:36

WeinitiatecoverageonChinaResourcesPower("CRP",orthe"Company")
witha"Buy"ratingandaTPofHK$19.54.Weforecast2022-2024EPSof
HK$1.31/HK$2.27/HK$2.69,respectively,reflectingrapidgrowthdrivenbythe
Company'sgreentransformation.OurTPofHK$19.54isderivedviaa
sum-of-the-partsapproach(thermal:0.7x2023PB;renewables:9.0x2023PE).
Wherewediffer:WebelievethemarketremainsconservativeaboutCRP'sgrowth
prospectinlightoftheCompany'scurrentlyloss-makingthermalexposure,which
prospectinlightoftheCompany'scurrentlyloss-makingthermalexposure,which
couldweighontheCompany'stransformationandaddtothepressureforaspin-off
ofitsrenewablesbusiness.However,weareratheroptimisticaboutCRP'sgrowth
prospect,andwearguethatCRP'sthermalbusinesscouldsoonturnintoacash
cowagainsupportingtheCompany'stransformation,whilefromalonger-term
perspectivealsorepresentingacompetitiveedgeinsecuringnewrenewables
projectsamidChina'spowersystemtransformation.Meanwhile,wearguethat
evenintheeventofarenewablesspin-off(theworstcasedeemedbysome
investors),existingshareholdersofCRPwouldnotbeworseoff,inlightofboth
relevantfinancetheoryandempiricalevidence.
Lookingbeyondcurrentheadwinds:CRP'sthermalsegmentpostedits
first-everlossin2021amidhighcoalprices,causingconcernsthatitwouldweigh
ontheCompany'sfurtherdevelopment.Thatbeingsaid,webelieveaturnaround
isinsightgiven1)weseeupsideinlong-termcoalcontractfulfilment,declining
importedcoalprices,andaccelerationinmarketliberalisation,and2)CRP's
thermalassetsareofhighquality,withadvancedgenerationfleet,highoperational
efficiencyandregionaladvantages.Therehasalsobeengrowingpreferential
treatmentofthermalIPPsduringrenewablesprojectauctionsinthepasttwo
years,implyingacompetitiveedgebroughtbythermalassets.Thisislargely
becausethegenerationflexibilityprovidedbythermalpowerisindispensableto
China'spowersystemtransformation,especiallyatthecurrentstage.
Catalysts:Acceleratedrenewablescapacitygrowth,better-than-expecteddark
spreads,accelerationinpowermarketliberalisation.Risks:Delaysinproject
roll-out,higher-than-expectedrawmaterialcosts,extremeweatherconditions.
年EPS分别为1.31/2.27/2.69港元,体现了公司绿色转型所带来的高速成长。通过分部估值给
予19.54港元目标价(火电:0.7倍2023年PB;可再生能源:9.0倍2023年PE)。
我们的不同观点:市场担心公司正处亏损的火电业务会影响其转型进度,同时增加新能源业务拆
分压力,因此对公司成长前景持保守态度。我们则对公司成长前景较为乐观,我们认为公司火电
业务有望反转并再度成为支持公司转型的现金牛,且更长远来看,公司火电资产亦是其在中国电
力系统转型背景下获取新能源项目的竞争优势。此外,鉴于相关金融理论及经验证据,我们认为
即使分拆新能源业务(许多投资者不乐于见到的情景),现有股东利益也不会受损。
不畏浮云遮望眼:2021年公司火电板块在煤价高企背景下首次录得亏损,令投资者担心公司进一
步发展将受到拖累。但我们认为反转有望,鉴于1)长协煤履约率有望提升、进口煤价下跌、市
场化改革加速推进,以及2)公司火电资产质地佳:机组先进、运营效率高、拥区位优势。在过
去两年新能源项目竞标中,火电公司越来越多受优惠待遇,体现了火电资产的竞争优势。这在很
大程度上是因为火电提供的发电侧灵活性对于中国电力系统转型是不可或缺的,尤其是在现阶段。
催化剂:新能源装机加速增长、点火价差好于预期、电力市场化改革加速。风险提示:项目开展
延迟、原材料价格高于预期、出现极端气候。
Rating:Buy
Initial
6-18mTP目标价:HK$19.54
Shareprice股价:HK$16.800
Stockperformance
股价表现