【行业研究报告】三一国际-Core net profit in 2022 +53% YoY in line with expectation; Margin recovery in 4Q

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2023-03-21 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-03-21 11:10:53

21Mar202321Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateSANYInternational(631HK)Corenetprofitin2022+53%YoYinlinewithexpectation;Marginrecoveryin4QSANYI’scorenetprofitin2022grew53%YoYtoRMB1.66bn,whichisinlinewithourexpectation.Theresultsimplythatnetprofitsurged1.1xYoYtoRMB369mnin4Q22.SANYIproposedHK$0.19dividendpershare,implying~32%dividendpay-out.Weseethisasolidsetofresults.WemaintainourpositiveviewonSANYIasweexpectthecoalminingcapexupcycletocontinuein2023E(coalminingFAI+20%in2M23),andexpectroboticandlithiumbatteryequipmenttoofferpotentialupside.MaintainBUYwithTPofHK$13(18x2023EP/E,onthebackof18%earningsCAGRin2023E-25E).2022resultshighlights.Revenuegrew52%YoYtoRMB10.2bn(miningequipment:+59%YoYtoRMB6.9bn;logisticsequipment:+40%YoYtoRMB3.3bn).Blendedgrossmarginremainedstableat23.4%.Administrativeexpenseratioreducedto7.6%,down2.7pptYoY,asR&Dexpensegrewonly15%YoY.Reportednetprofitgrew32%YoYtoRMB1.66bn.Excludingtheone-offgainsondisposalofasubsidiary(RMB172mn)recognizedin2021,coreearningsgrowthwouldbe53%YoY.Operatingcashinflowgrew17%YoYtoRMB1.1bn.SANYImaintainedanetcashpositionofRMB1.18bnasatend-2022.Marginrecoveryin4Q22.Netprofitin4Q22surged1.1xYoYtoRMB369mn,drivenby48%YoYincreaseinrevenue(toRMB3.9bn),1.8pptYoY(1.5pptQoQ)improvementingrossmargin(to23.7%),andgoodexpensecontrol.Post-resultsconferencecall.CMBIwillhostagroupcallat14:30(HKtime)today.Weexpectmanagementtoshareaboutthelatestbacklog,newproductdevelopmentandmargintrend.Pleasecontactyoursalesrepresentativesfordetails.Majorriskfactors:(1)weaknessinminingactivities;(2)slower-than-expectedprogressonnewproductdevelopment;(3)reboundofrawmaterialcosts.TargetPriceHK$13.00(PreviousTPHK$13.00)Up/Downside74.0%CurrentPriceHK$7.47ChinaCapitalGoodsWayneFUNG,CFA(852)39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkKatherineNG(852)37618725katherineng@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)23,700.8Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)7.952wHigh/Low(HK$)8.88/6.44TotalIssuedShares(mn)3172.8Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureSanyHeavyEquipmentInvestmentsCompany67.7%Freefloat32.3%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-4.1%2.6%3-mth-8.3%-8.7%6-mth-10.4%-13.9%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetRelatedreports:SANYI(631HK,BUY)–Expansiontonewenergyequipmentsectorwithanambitioustarget–9Jan2023(link)SANYI(631HK,BUY)–Keytakeawaysfrompost-resultscallandNDR–2Nov2022(link)EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue(RMBmn)10,19515,53718,40321,73925,215YoYgrowth(%)38.452.418.418.116.0Adjustednetprofit(RMBmn)1,086.71,664.91,992.72,325.52,712.8EPS(Adjusted)(RMB)0.350.530.630.740.86ConsensusEPS(RMB)nana0.610.74n/aP/E(x)17.712.810.38.87.6P/B(x)2.62.11.81.61.4Yield(%)1.72.53.03.54.1ROE(%)15.217.818.518.819.1Netgearing(%)(18.3)(11.8)(15.8)(20.3)(26.3)Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates