【行业研究报告】舜宇光学科技-2H22 first take: weakness in-line; awaiting recovery

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2023-03-21 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-03-21 11:10:55

21Mar202321Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateSunnyOptical(2382HK)2H22firsttake:weaknessin-line;awaitingrecoverySunny’s2H22netprofitdeclineof54%YoYisin-linewithexpectations,whilerevenueexceedsour/consensusestimatesby25%/9%,mainlyduetobetterASPandproductmix.2H22GPMcameinat19.0%,vs20.8%in1H22duetolowerHCM/HLS/VLSGPM.Weexpect1H23Eoutlookwillremainunderpressuregivenon-goinginventorycorrection,smartphonedemandrecoveryuncertaintyandglobalEVsalesslowdown.Despitebumpyrecoveryin2023,wearepositiveonVCM/periscope/AR/VRtodrivegrowthinlongerterm.Tradingat24.2xFY23EP/E,wethinkthestockisfairlyvalued.Analystbriefingwillbehostedat10:30amtoday,andwewilllookfor2023shipment/ASPguidanceandbusinessoutlookonAR/VR/autoCCMbusiness.2H22weaknessin-line;HCM/HLSmarginunderpressure.2H22revenue/NPdeclined8%/54%YoY,largelyin-linewithexpectations.GPMdroppedto19.0%in2H22from21.5%in2H21,draggedbyHLSGPMdeclineof4.4pptsandHCMGPMdropof2.7ppts.Despiteweakshipment,HCM/VLSASPcameinbetterthanexpected,butweestimateHLSdropped34%YoY/31%HoH,mainlyduetocompetitionandcamde-spectrend.Abumpydemandrecoveryinthenearterm.WeexpectHCM/HLSshipmentweaknesstopersistinto1H23Eonhighbaseandinventorycorrection.Wesuggesttofocusonmanagement’s2023shipmentguidanceduringearningscall,whichmightgiveussomecolorondemandrecoveryin2H23E.WenotedthatQ-Techannouncedconservativecapexplanonsmartphonecapacityexpansion,whichimpliesbumpydemandrecoveryin2023inourview.Keyquestionsformgmt.atinvestormeeting.1)HLSmarketshareandupgradewithUSmajorcustomers;2)periscopecamoutlookinAndroidcamp;3)Sunny’sviewVLSdemandgivenslowerglobalautosales4)automoduleorderwinsandcapacityexpansion;and5)AR/VRoutlookgivenmajorcustomerweakness.MaintainHOLDwithTPofHK$92.51.WhilewearepositiveonSunny’sindustryleadership,productroadmapandopportunitiesinautocamera/VCM/AR/VR,webelieveinventorydestockingandhighexposuretohandsetsegmentwillremaintheoverhangforthestock.Tradingat24.2xFY23EP/E,wethinkthestockisfairlyvalued.MaintainHOLDwithSOTP-basedTPofHK$92.51.TargetPriceHK$92.51(PreviousTPHK$92.51)Up/Downside6.4%CurrentPriceHK$86.95ChinaTechnologyAlexNG(852)39000881alexng@cmbi.com.hkLilyYANG,Ph.D(852)39163716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hkHanqingLIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)98,730.0Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)97.052wHigh/Low(HK$)144.60/67.55TotalIssuedShares(mn)1097.0Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureSunXuLtd35.5%JPMorganChase&Co4.9%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-7.6%-1.1%3-mth-4.4%-4.7%6-mth-7.7%-11.3%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetRelatedReports:1)FY22Epreview;Bumpyrecoveryin2023–15Mar2023(link)2)Shipmentweaknesslikelytopersistinto1Q23E;MaintainHOLD–11Jan2023(link)3)SoftHLS/HCMinAug;Stillawaitingturningpoint–13Sep2022(link)EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue(RMBmn)38,00237,49729,81332,21337,781YoYgrowth(%)0.4(1.3)(20.5)8.017.3Netprofit(RMBmn)4,950.35,061.12,454.23,625.54,405.0YoYgrowth(%)23.22.2(51.5)47.721.5EPS(Reported)(RMB)4.474.572.203.263.96ConsensusEPS(RMB)0.004.572.713.764.86P/E(x)25.538.335.824.219.9P/B(x)7.49.23.83.32.9Yield(%)0.60.50.50.81.0ROE(%)33.526.811.214.916.0Netgearing(%)(4.6)(16.1)(22.1)(21.6)(30.2)Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates