【行业研究报告】银河娱乐-预计2023年第二季度物业利用率将提高，“买入”

from"Neutral"to"Buy"andincreasethetargetpricefromHK$55.00to
HK$62.00.Ourtargetpriceisbasedon15.4x2024EV/adjustedEBITDA,
andisa22.3%discounttoourDCFderivedNAVofHK$79.77.Weforecast
2023-2025adjustedpropertyEBITDAofHK$9.693bn,HK$17.178bnand
HK$19.127bn,respectively.WeincreasedrevenueandEBITDAforecasts,
expectingstrongervisitationandrevenuegrowthin2023asGEGresolvesits
expectingstrongervisitationandrevenuegrowthin2023asGEGresolvesits
staffingshortageproblemandopensitsRafflesatGalaxyMacauhotel.
Weexpectthatin2Q2023,GEG’slaborshortagewillease,resultingin
higherpropertyutilizationandbetter-than-expectedrevenueand
EBITDAgrowth.Wethinkthatduring2Q2023,GEGwillbeabletoincrease
itsnon-residentstaffingtoadequatelymeetnewdemand.Withadequate
staffing,GEGwillbeabletomorefullyutilizeitsproperties,includingthenew
RafflesatGalaxyMacauhotel,whichcouldopenasearlyasthisApril.This
coulddriveasurgeinvisitationtoGalaxy,whichcouldresultin
higher-than-expectedrevenueandadjustedEBITDAforGEGinlate2Q2023
and3Q2023.
Catalysts:Staffinglevelincreasestoadequatelymeetgrowingdemand
combinedwithopeningofRaffleshotelinAprilleadstohigherproperty
utilizationandhigher-than-expectedrevenuein3Q2023.
Risks:Gamingrevenuegrowthcouldbeerraticorslowerthan
expected.
港元上调至62.00港元。我们的目标价基于15.4倍2024年EV/经调整EBITDA，较DCF
估值法得出的每股估值79.77港元折让22.3%。我们预测2023-2025年经调整物业
EBITDA分别为96.93亿港元、171.78亿港元及191.27亿港元。我们上调了收入与EBITDA
预测，因为我们认为银娱将解决其人手短缺问题，加上澳门银河莱佛士酒店的开幕，银娱
2023年的访问量和收入增长将更加强劲。