【行业研究报告】瑞声科技-4Q22 slightly below; recovery remains bumpy

24Mar202324Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateAACTech(2018HK)J4Q22slightlybelow;recoveryremainsbumpyAACs4Q22netprofit(+12%YoY)was5%/6%belowour/consensusestimates,mainlyduetowideninglossfromopticssegment,whilerevenueexceededexpectationswith21%YoYgrowthgivenstrongercameramodulesinourview.4QGPMcameinat16.6%,wellbelowexpectationsduetoimpairmentofopticssegment.Bysegment,acoustics/optics/EMD&PM/Sensorrevenuegrew6%/56%/28%/50%YoY.Mgmt.reiteratedconfidencetoimproveprofitabilityandefficiencyinFY23EwithcostcontrolandlowerCAPEX.Overall,webelieveongoingsmartphonedemandweaknessandloss-makingopticssegmentwillcontinuetodragearningsrecoveryinthenearterm.Thestocknowtradesat15.1xFY23EP/E,whichisfairgivenearningsuncertaintiesinourview.MaintainHoldwithnewSOTP-basedTPofHK$15.58,implying14.1xFY23EP/E.4Q22slightlymissedonwideninglossinopticsbusiness.Bysegment,4Q22acousticsgrew6.3%YoYonstrongsalesfromoverseascustomersandsharegain.Opticsrevenuegrew55.6%YoYtoRMB798mnwithboostinHCMshipment+122%YoY,butopticsGPMfurtherdroppedto-51.5%withwideninglossandimpairment.Mgmt.believesacceleratedinventorydestockingandbetterproductmixin2H23EwilldriveopticsGPM/ASP.EM&PMrevenuegrew28%YoYtoRMB2.29bnandGPMimprovedto22.2%(+2.5pptsYoY,+0.7pptsQoQ)thankstosharegainofAndroidx-axishapticsandhighershipmentofhigh-valuemetalcasingproductstokeysmartphone/NBcustomers.MoreupdatesondiversificationstrategyinautomotiveandAR/VR.AACguidedmeaningfulgrowthinautomotiveacousticsinFY23Egivenmultipleprojects(RMB1bn)inprogresswithleadingChinaEVandtier-oneclients.AsforAR/VR,AAC’sx-axishapticsmotorwondesign-inprojectswithaleadingglobalVRplayer.However,givenchallengingconsumerdemand,mgmt.expectedCAPEXtodrop10-15%YoYinFY23EfromRMB1.85bninFY22.Worstislikelyover,butvaluationisfairat14.3xFY23EP/E.WhilewearepositiveonAAC’srecentacquisitionsandacceleratedtransitionintonon-handsetbusinesses,webelievethemajoroverhangremainstheloss-makingopticssegmentgivensmartphoneweakness,lackofspecupgradeandlowcapacityutilization.OurnewSOTP-basedTPHK$15.58implied14.1xFY23EP/E.Tradingat15.1xFY23EP/E,thestockisfairlyvaluedgivenslowerrecoveryandearningsuncertaintiesinourview.TargetPriceHK$15.58(PreviousTPHK$15.4)Up/Downside(7.8%)CurrentPriceHK$16.90ChinaTechnologyAlexNG(852)39000881alexng@cmbi.com.hkClaudiaLIUclaudialiu@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)20,246.2Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)18.652wHigh/Low(HK$)22.30/11.14TotalIssuedShares(mn)1198.0Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureWuChunyuan21.9%PanZhengmin19.5%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-5.6%-1.6%3-mth-1.3%-0.8%6-mth26.7%17.4%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetEarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue(RMBmn)17,66720,62521,39322,41823,398YoYgrowth(%)3.116.73.74.84.4Netprofit(RMBmn)1,316.3821.31,179.01,311.81,375.6YoYgrowth(%)(12.6)(37.6)43.611.34.9EPS(Reported)(RMB)1.090.690.981.091.15YoYgrowth(%)(12.6)(37.1)43.611.34.9ConsensusEPS(RMB)nana0.951.250.32P/E(x)32.422.315.113.612.9P/B(x)0.80.80.80.80.8Yield(%)3.50.83.23.53.7ROE(%)5.93.75.35.86.0Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates