【行业研究报告】力劲科技-Key takeaways from plant visit in Shenzhen

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2023-03-24 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-03-24 17:11:11

Integrateddie-castingsolutioncontinuestooffercostadvantagetoauto
makers.LKbelievesthatthereplacementofweldingbydie-castingwill
makers.LKbelievesthatthereplacementofweldingbydie-castingwill
continue,asithelpsautomakersachieve:(1)Costreduction:40%reduction
incapexand30%decreaseinfloorareatakenbyproductionline;(2)
Lightweighting:10-20%reductionintotalcarweight,translatingintoa14%
enhancementindrivingrange/chargingforNEV;and(3)Production
efficiency:productioncycleisshortenedsubstantiallyfrom120minsto110-
120sbyapplyingintegrateddie-castingtechnology.
Estimatedmarketsizeofultra-largesizedie-castingmachinery.
AccordingtoLK,eachultra-largesizedie-castingmachinecanproduce~155k
unitsofcomponentannually.EachNEVgenerallyneedsthreepiecesoflarge
die-castingparts.Assuming12.5mnunitsofNEVdemandinChinain2025E
(accordingtoCMBIautoteam),weestimatethetotaloperatingvolumeofdie-
castingmachineswillpotentiallyreach~300sets(assuming80%utilization
rate)ifintegrateddie-castingsolutionisfullyapplied.Theultra-largesizedie-
castingmachinery(6000Tandabove)marketwillpotentiallyreach
~RMB19bnby2025E(basedonestimatedASPofRMB63mn).
NewproductionplanttoboostcapacitygrowthinFY24E(Maryear-end).
HangzhouBayplantisLK’snewproductionbasewhichisexpectedto
commenceoperationinJul/Aug2023.Uponcompletion,LK’smonthly
capacityofultra-largesizedie-castingmachinewillincreasesubstantiallyfrom
2-3setscurrentlyto8sets.
Launchofnewproductsandcross-sellingstrategy.Twoultra-largesize
die-castingunitmodelswithlargetonnage(>12,000T)willbelaunchedin
2HFY24E,whichisspecificallydesignedfortheproductionof(i)front,middle
andrearchassisforA00classmodels,and(ii)mid-floorbatterytray.Onthe
otherhand,LKplanstoboostthesalesofCNCmachinesthroughcross-
sellingstrategy,giventhestandardcombinationofoneunitofdie-casting
machineandfourunitsofCNCmachine.
PotentialearningsrecoveryinFY24E.Giventhegradualrecoveryofsales
in2HFY23E(Oct2022-Mar2023),weseepotentialforLK’stoachieve
revenuegrowthof10-20%YoYandstablenetprofitinFY23E(note:1HFY23E
revenue/netprofitgrowth:+3%/-33%duetolockdowninSH).Goingforward,
LKtargetstodelivera30%YoYrevenuegrowthinFY24E,mainlydrivenby
therisingcontributionofultra-largesizedie-castingmachinery(Theaverage
sellingpriceof6,000-9,000T/12,000Tmodels:RMB40-50mn/RMB63mn).