【行业研究报告】石药集团-mRNA platform verified with product approval

mRNAvaccineplatformverifiedwiththeEUAapprovalofSYS6006for
COVID-19.On22Mar,CSPCannouncedthatNMPAapprovedthe
COVID-19.On22Mar,CSPCannouncedthatNMPAapprovedthe
Company’sCOVID-19mRNAvaccineSYS6006foremergencyuse.Ina
heterologousboosterstudyduringthepandemic(2022.12-2023.01)with
4,000participants,usingarecombinantproteinvaccineascontrol,SYS6006
demonstratedefficacyof85.3%in14to28daysafterboostervaccination.
WiththeadvantageofCSPC’slarge-scaleproductioncapacity(1.5bndoses/
year)andthecapabilitytoscaleupeasily,SYS6006isabletomeetthe
ongoingdemandforCOVID-19vaccinesonceCOVID-19outbreakinChina.
SYS6006isthefirstindependentlydevelopedmRNAvaccineinChinathat
hasbeengrantedEUA,whichhighlightsCSPC’sR&Dcapabilitiesofthe
nucleicacidplatform.CSPCisactivelypromotingthedevelopmentofother
productsonthemRNAplatform,includingvaccinesforrabies,RSV,VZV.
Newproductstorampupquicklywhileoldproductsremainsteady.
ThenewNRDLrenewalpriceofNBPwasimplementedinMar2023,while
theincreaseinaccessibilitywilloffsettheimpactofthepricecutofthe
product.WeexpectthesalesofNBP,Duomeisu,Jinyouli,Keailiand
Xuanningtobestablein2023.However,weexpectremarkablesales
growthoftheCompany’snewproductsthisyearincludingMingfule,
Duoenda,Anfulike,eveniftheyareattheearlystageofsalesramp-up.
MaintainBUY.WeexpectCSPC’srevenuetogrow9.6%/9.8%YoYin
FY23E/24Eandattributablenetprofittogrow6.0%/10.0%YoYinFY23E/
24E.WerevisedourDCF-basedTPtoHK$12.11fromHK$13.52(WACC
11.78%,Terminalgrowth3.0%).