【行业研究报告】知乎-Vocational training & AIGC as LT driver

Despitemacrochallengesandepidemicresurgence,Zhihudeliveredbetter-than-
feared4Q22results,withstrongmembership&vocationaltrainingandnarrowing
loss.WeexpectZhihutoseerevreaccelerationfrom1Q23E(forecasting+28%
YoY),backedby:1)resilientmembership;2)strongvocationaltrainingto
continue(forecasting+140%YoY);and3)mildadsrecoverywithChina’s
reopening.Weturnmorebullishonvocationaltrainingpotential,withenriched
productsmatrixandcourseofferings.WeseehighvisibilityforZhihutoimprove
itsmarginandachieveaquarterlybreakeveninFY24EevenwithAIGC
investment.Welifteditsrevby5%-8%inFY23-24EwhileFY24Ebottomline
barelychanged,withTPatUS$2.3.
4Q22all-aroundbeat.4Q22rev+9%YoY,4%/6%aboveconsensus/our
estimates.Bysegment,CCS/Ads-19%/-27%YoY(3%/4%aboveour
estimates.Bysegment,CCS/Ads-19%/-27%YoY(3%/4%aboveour
estimate).Paidmembership+93%YoY,9%aboveourestimate,attributable
torisingpayingusersbackedbycommunityecosystemenhancement.Non-
GAAPnetlosssequentiallynarrowedtoRMB134mn,aheadofconsensusand
ourestimate,thankstosavingsinCOGSandlowerG&Aexpenses.GPM
recordedat56.4%,6pptsaboveconsensus.
Reaccelerationinsightwithresilientmembershipandmildadsrecovery.
Withenrichedcontentandhigherengagementofbothcreators&users,we
areconfidentonitsmembershipmomentum(forecasting+54%inFY23E).
ZhihuwilllaunchitsappofYanyan<盐言故事>,toenhanceitsuser
experience.Forads&CCS,macroheadwindsmaylingerin1Q23E
(forecastingrev-15%YoYin1Q23E),andweexpectrisingadsdemandfrom
2Q23E,especiallyfromecommerce&FMCGverticals.Weexpectadj.NPM
toimprove13pptsYoYinFY23EthankstohigherGPManddisciplinedS&M.
VocationaltrainingandAIGCinitiativestoboostLTmomentum.
Vocationaltrainingrevsurged281%YoYin4Q22.Byleveragingits
“knowledge-inspiring”community,weexpectvocationaltrainingbiz+140%/81%
in1Q23E/FY23E,withenrichedproductsmatrixanddiversifiedcourse
offerings.AsaQ&A-orientedknowledgecommunity,Zhihuexceleditselfwith
uniquevaluepropositionandtrustworthyPUGC,thusbuildingdata&content
reserveforitsAIGCinitiatives.WeexpectitsAIGCexplorationwouldbring
furtherupsideinecosystemenhancementandmonetization.
MaintainBUY.Tofactorinstrongervocationaltrainingandmembership,we
raiseditstoplineby5%-8%inFY23-24E,butadjusteditsmarginby-5~0ppts,
withTPunchangedatUS$2.3(implying2.1xFY23EP/S).