【行业研究报告】宝尊电商-Reorganizing to capture LT opportunities

类型: 美股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2023-03-24 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-03-24 17:11:15

Baozundeliveredmixed4Q22resultsonsoftelectronics.Itrestructuredintothree
bizlines,tocaptureecommercerecoveryandLTopportunities.Lookinginto2023,
weexpectBECrevtogrow7%YoY,withstrongsports&luxurytooffset
electronicssoftness.AfterconsolidatingGAPShanghai,grouprevwouldgrow
25%YoYinFY23E,withnon-GAAPOPatRMB11mn(inwhichBECNon-GAAP
OPatRMB263mn).Leveragingitsstrongbrandmgmtcapabilityandomni-
channeladvantage,wethinkBZUNiswell-positionedtobenefitfromChina’s
reopeningandmoresynergieswithM&Aandoverseasopportunities.Tofactor
inGAPconsolidation,weliftedrevby19-21%inFY23-34E,buttrimmednon-
GAAPOPMby3-4ppts.OurTPwasunchangedatUS$8.4(implying11xFY23
EV/EBITofBEC).
4Q22slightlymissed.4Q22GMV-1.7%YoY(non-distributionGMV+0%
YoY,distributionGMV-37.2%YoY).Rev-19.5%YoY,6%belowconsensus,
YoY,distributionGMV-37.2%YoY).Rev-19.5%YoY,6%belowconsensus,
inwhichproductsales/Services-37.2%/-8.3%YoY.Bycategory,Appliances
andElectronicsdraggedrevgrowthwith-37%/-76%YoY(forsoft
consumptionsentimentandFoxconnissue),whileresilientFMCGandLuxury
grewat+30%/27%YoY.Non-GAAPOPwasRMB183mn,slightlybelow
consensusofRMB193mn.Adj.netprofitofRMB138mnmissedconsensus(at
RMB185mn)onunrealizedinvestmentlossandFX.
Reorganizingtocapturerecoveryandoverseasopportunity.Baozun
restructuredintothreebizlines,includingcoree-commercebusiness(BEC),
brandmanagement(BBM)andinternationalbusiness(BZI).Weexpectcore
ecommercetoseesingledigitYoYgrowthinFY23E,withstrongsports&
luxurytooffsetsoftelectronics.Marketfocusliesonthepotentialstabilization
ofseveraltopelectronicsbrands.Baozunhasenhancedoperation&
marketingwiththosebrands(e.g.SKUsselectionandco-branding),improving
theirperformancegradually.Baozuniswell-positionedtocaptureinternational
opportunitieswithM&A(e.g.investmentinBrandLifestyle)andcooperation,
althoughBZIrevcontributionmaynotbemeaningfulinthenextthreeyears.
GAPconsolidationtoboosttopline,despiteSTmargindilution.GAP
ShanghaiwasconsolidatedtoBZUNfrom1Feb,whileGAPTaiwanyetto
comein.WeexpectGAPtocontributerevofRMB1.5bninFY23E,withOPof
-RMB252mn,thusresultinginslightlypositivenon-GAAPOPofgroup.We
seehighvisibilityforBZUNtoempowerGAPwithstrongbrandmgmt
capabilityandomni-channeladvantage,boostingorganicgrowthand
improvingmargin.
MaintainBUY.TofactorinGAPconsolidation,weadjustedrevby19-21%in
FY23-34E,buttrimmednon-GAAPOPMby3-4ppts.OurTPwasunchanged
atUS$8.4(implying11xFY23EV/EBITofBEC,or13xFY24EP/E).