【行业研究报告】中国通信服务-数字基建带来增长动力,“收集”

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 国泰君安(香港)

发表时间: 2023-03-31 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-03-31 18:13:00

Wemaintaintheinvestmentratingas"Accumulate"andraiseTPto
HK$4.50.WeforecastFY23-FY25EPStobeRMB0.528/RMB0.574/
RMB0.623,respectively.Giventhebetter-than-expectedgrossmargin
improvementonnon-operatormarket,weraiseourTP,andmaintainthe
investmentratingas"Accumulate".
WeexpecttheCompany'searningsin2023togrowbymid-to-high
WeexpecttheCompany'searningsin2023togrowbymid-to-high
single-digitpercentageanddividendpayoutgrowthtobedouble-digit
percentage.AsthreemajoroperatorsallplantoreduceCAPEXinnetwork
businessin2023,weexpecttheCompany’sbusinessinnetworkconstruction
tobeunderpressure;however,thethreemajoroperatorsarestillvigorously
investingincomputingpowernetworks,thustheCompanystillhaslargeroom
fordevelopmentinconstruction,operationandmaintenanceofdatacenters.
Currently,thegrossmarginofthenon-operatormarketisstilllowerthanthat
oftheoperatormarket,butthegapbetweenthetwohasnarrowed,andwe
expectthegrossmarginofthenon-operatormarketstillhasroomfor
improvement.Overall,weexpectthatprofitgrowthwillbelargerthanrevenue
growth.Inaddition,weexpecttheCompanytocontinueraisingitsdividend
payoutratio,anddividendpayoutratioin2023tobe42%.
WeexpectthattheCompany'ssecondgrowthcurvemayexceedmarket
expectations.WeexpectthatcloudandAIwillbothbringhugemarketspace
forthedigitalinfrastructureindustry.WecanseethattheCompanyis
continuouslyenhancingitstechnologyandinnovationcapabilitiestodrivethe
secondcurveofbusinessgrowth.Thus,weexpectthattheCompany's
secondgrowthcurvemayexceedmarketexpectations.
Catalysts:Increaseindividendpayoutratio;better-than-expectedprofitability
ofnon-operatormarket.
Risks:Slower-than-expectedgrowthofACObusiness;
weaker-than-expecteddemandfromnon-operatorcustomers.
我们维持“收集”的投资评级并上调目标价至4.50港元。我们预测2023-2025财年的每
股盈利为人民币0.528/0.574/0.623元。鉴于非运营商市场毛利率改善好于预期,我们上
调目标价,维持投资评级为“收集”。
我们预计公司2023年盈利将实现中高个位数增长,而派息增长将达到两位数。由于三大
运营商均计划在2023年缩减网络资本开支,因此我们预计公司网络建设业务将承压,但
三大运营商仍在大力投资算力网络,公司在数据中心建设和运维仍有较大发展空间。目前
非运营商市场的毛利率仍低于运营商市场,但两者差距已经缩小,我们预计非运营商市场
的毛利率仍有提升空间。总体而言,我们预计利润增长将大于收入增长。此外,我们预计
公司将继续提高派息率,2023年派息率将达到42%。
我们预计公司第二增长曲线或超市场预期。我们预计云和人工智能都将为数字基建行业带
来巨大的市场空间。我们可以看到,公司正在不断提升科技创新能力以驱动业务的第二增
长曲线。因此,我们预计公司的第二增长曲线可能超出市场预期。
催化剂:派息率的上升;非运营商市场利润率好于预期。
风险提示:ACO业务发展慢于预期;非运营商客户需求弱于预期。
Rating:Accumulate
Maintained