【行业研究报告】青岛啤酒股份-Stronger ahead

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2023-05-10 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-05-10 14:11:21

Tsingtao’ssolid1Qandtakeawayfrombriefingagainconvincedusthatthe
Companyisdedicatedtoitspremiumizationeffortalongwithamorecost-
effectiveoperation.DespitemarkettalksaboutsoftbeersalesinApril,Tsingtao’s
low-teensalesgrowthofthemonthwasencouraging,consideringalsothemid-
double-digitvolumegrowthinClassic&above.Lookingahead,2Qisan
importantquarterforbeerconsumption,asthequarter’srestockingmomentum
typicallyprovidesagoodgaugetopeakseasondemand,andthereforeany
earningsupsideforTsingtao.Wethinkthisexplainsrecentprofit-takingonshares,
andexpectthetrendtocontinueuntilsignsofastrong2Qemerge.Despitethis,
weremainBuyerofTsingtaoandrateitasourpreferredpickalongwithCRBeer
(291HK,Buy)withinourcoverageuniverse.
2Qoutlook.1QmomentumhaslargelyextendedintoAprilwithlow-teen
salesgrowth.ApproachingtheendofMay,weshouldbeabletoobtain
salesgrowth.ApproachingtheendofMay,weshouldbeabletoobtain
incrementalinformationaboutthedemandforDragonBoatFestivalandmore
importantly,fortheupcomingsummerstrongseason.Fornow,weasserta
similar,ifnotbetter,growthtrajectoryforthequarterasourbasecase
scenario.Longterm,Tsingtao’smanagementtargetstomaintaindouble-digit
salesgrowththankstosustainabledriverssuchaspricehike,mixupgrade
andcostinitiatives.
Are-rampedproduct/regionalstrategy.Tsingtaoplanstoreshapeits
productstructuretodiamond-shaped,havingmassmarketproducts(mainly
Classic)contributingalargepartofthemix,followedbythatofsuper-
premium.LowendSKUswillrepresentthesmallestshares.Byregion,
TsingtaowillmaintainitsleadinShangdong,Shaanxi,Gansu,andwilllook
forregainingmarketshareinweakerregionssuchasGuangdong,Zhejiang
andFujian.
Earningschange.Toreflecttheabove,wefine-tuneour2023/24Erevenue
andGPMestimates.Inparticular,weraiseourgrossprofitsby3-6%,onthe
assumptionthatalowpackagingcostcouldonlydriveupCOGSbyaLSD
YoY.WefurtherlowerourSG&Aratioby0.5pp.Thesetogetherleadtoa8-
14%increaseinourEBITDAestimatesforthesameperiod.Fornow,aswe
introduceour2025Eforecasts,andweforecasta9%revenueCAGR
between2022-25Ewithanaverage1.0ppGPMexpansionperannum.
Valuation.OurrevisedTPisstillbasedon15.0xroll-forwardend-23E
EV/EBITDAwhichstillrepresents+1sdabovelongtermaveragesince2018.