【行业研究报告】新天绿色能源-Gas and new energy go hand in hand

Suntienannounceditsoperationaldatain1Q23andApr2023,showing3.57%
YoYgrowthand4.07%YoYriseinwindpowergeneration.Duringthesameperiod,
solarpowergenerationreboundedat10%YoYand7.13%YoY.Despitethegas
segmentrecoverslowly,weremainoptimisticfor2023as1)wholesalegassales
recoverowingtosteadydeclineofgascosts;2)PhaseIofTangshanLNG
terminalsisexpectedtoputintooperationin2023,whichmaysupportthegas
supplyandimprovedollarmargin;3)lowerupstreamwindturbinecostmayboost
installationwillingness;and4)moreSuntien’sprojectswillenterthecompliance-
fulfilledrenewableprojectsubsidylist.Suntientradesatonly0.57x/0.53xPBfor
FY23/21Eandoffersanattractiveyieldat6.54%forFY23E.OurSOTP-based
TPisHK$4.57,basedon0.8xtargetforwardPBforrenewablesegmentand
10xtargetPEforgassegmentinFY23E.WetransfercoveragewithaBUY
rating.
Gassalesgrowthisexpectedtoreboundto8.27%YoYin2023,andPhase
IofTangshanLNGterminalswillputintooperation.By2022,affectedby
IofTangshanLNGterminalswillputintooperation.By2022,affectedby
theepidemicandhighergascosts,totalgassalesvolumewasupbyonly
2.01%YoY.Inparticular,wholesalegasvolumedroppedby5.9%YoY,and
LNGsalesvolumedeclinedby62.3%YoY.However,thegastransmission
volumeforclientswasupby76.6%YoY.In2023,weestimatethattotalgas
salesgrowthwillrebound8%YoY,andthegastransmissionvolumeforthe
clientwillstayrapidgrowthat56%YoY.Inaddition,webelievethatthedollar
marginwillslightlyrisetoRMB0.45cbmin2023.
Suntienmayhavehigherinstallationwillingnessofwindpowerasthe
upstreamcostofwindturbinesdropped;weexpectitsnewlyinstalled
windpowercapacitywillbeupto480MWin2023.Thegrowthofwindpower
generationin2022waslowerthanthepreviousyear,causedbytheweak
resourcein2022andlowernewlyinstalledcapacityin2021duetolower
subsidy.Meanwhile,theaverageon-gridtariff(ex-tax)dropped5.22%YoYas
morePPPprojectswereimplemented.For2023,theGroupmayhavehigher
installationwillingness,andweestimatethatSuntien’snewlyinstalledwind
powercapacitywillriseto480MWin2023.
Suntiencontinuedtoadvancethedevelopmentofotherrenewable
energy.ThePumpedStoragePowerStationProjectinHebeiFengninghas
completedthehoistingoftheNo.7generatorby1H22.Besides,theGroup
added1,200MWofcontractedpumpedstoragecapacity.InOct2022,67
renewableenergyprojectsofChinaSuntiensuccessfullyenteredthe1stbatch
ofthecompliance-fulfilledrenewableprojectsubsidylist.Webelievethe
subsequentsubsidypaymentswillbringapositiveimpactontheGroup’s
financialresilience.
WetransfercoverageandarriveataSOTP-basedTPofHK$4.57withBUY
rating.Suntienistradingat0.57x/0.53xPBforFY23/24E,whichiscloseto5-
yearaveragePBof0.59xandofferattractiveyieldat6.54%forFY23.Wearrive
ataSOTP-basedTPofHK$4.57withBUYrating,basedon0.8xFY23EPBof
renewablesegmentand10xFY23EPEofgassegment.