【行业研究报告】中通快递-W-Best of both worlds

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2023-05-18 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-05-18 22:10:29

PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEMOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERG:RESPCMBRORhttp://www.cmbi.com.hkBUY(Maintain)TargetPriceHK$344(PreviousTPHK$321)Up/Downside+46.5%CurrentPriceHK$234.8118May2023ChinaLogisticsWayneFung,CFA(852)39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkKatherineNg(852)37618725katherineng@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)191,859Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)33.0252wHigh/Low(HK$)236.4/121.4TotalIssuedShares(mn)855.3Source:BloombergShareholdingStructureMeisongLai25.6%Alibaba8.6%Others65.8%Note:Undertheweightedvotingrightsstructure,MeisongLaihas76.8%ofthetotalvotingrightSource:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-4.3%1.7%3-mth10.3%16.8%6-mth27.4%17.5%Source:Bloomberg12-mthPricePerformanceSource:BloombergAuditor:DeloitteRelatedreports:1.Clearguidanceonvolumeandmarketsharetarget;furtherroomofcostreduction–17Mar20232.Record-highmarketshare;Goodcostcontrol;Earningsraisedonbettermargin–18Aug20223.Lowerparcelvolumeguidancebutlargelyexpected;ASPstorywellintact–27Mar20220.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02057HKHSI(rebased)(HK$)ZTOdeliveredimpressivereported/corenetprofitgrowthof84%/67%in1Q23,whichisbetterthanexpectations.Mostimportantly,ZTOrevisesupthefullyearparcelvolumegrowthtargetto20-24%YoY(upfrom18-22%inMar),implying1.5ppt(YoY)potentialmarketsharegain.Besides,ZTOtargetstoachieveRMB0.05-0.07(~5-7%)ofunitcostreductionthisyear.Wereviseupour2023E-25Eearningsforecastby9-10%,toreflecthighervolumeandlowerunitcostassumptions.WecontinuetolikeZTO’smarketsharegainstoryonthebackofcostadvantage,aswellasstrongfreecashflowin2023E-25E.OurTPforZTOUS/2057HKisreviseduptoUS$43.8/HK$344,basedonunchangedtargetP/Eof29x(2023E).ReiterateBUY.Keyhighlightsin1Q23results:Reportednetprofitin1Q23grew84%YoYtoRMB1.67bn.Excludingtheunrealizedinvestmentgain,adjustednetprofitgrew67%YoYtoRMB1.5bn.Thegrowthwasdrivenby(1)14%YoYrevenuegrowth,and(2)7.6pptYoYgrossmarginexpansionto28.1%.SG&Aexpensesgrew27%YoY,largelyduetotheincreasedperformancebonus.Parcelvolumegrew21%YoYto6.3bnunitsin1Q23,outpacingtheindustryaverage(11%YoY).Marketshareexpanded1.8pptto23.4%in1Q23.ZTOrevisesupthefullyeartargetrangeofparcelvolumeto29.27-30.24bnunits.Runratein1Q23was20.8%-21.5%(1Q22:20.2%-20.9%).ASP-3.7%YoYin1Q23.ParceldeliveryASPdecreasedRMB0.05/unitYoY(-3.7%YoY)toRMB1.4/unitin1Q23,largelyduetotheloweravg.parcelweight(-RMB0.03),lesscontributionfromKAvolume(-RMB0.03)andincentives(-RMB0.02).Thatsaid,allthesewerepartiallyoffsetbytherefinedpricingpolicy(+RMB0.03).Unitcost-12.8%YoYin1Q23.Unitcostoftransportationdecreased10.6%YoYtoRMB0.51/unit,thankstotheenhancedeconomiesofscale,digitalizationofrouteplanning,higherproportionofhigh-capacitytrucksandimprovedloadrate.Unitcostofsortinghubdecreased11.1%YoYtoRMB0.32/unit,drivenbythecontinuedstandardizationinsortationprocedureswithimprovedlaborproductivityandanincreaseinautomationlevel.Unitgrossmargingrew31%YoYtoRMB0.4/unit.Majorriskfactors:(1)unexpectedpricecompetition;(2)slowdownofonlineretailsales;and(3)furtherincreaseindieselprice.EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue(RMBmn)30,40635,37742,48849,73456,787YoYgrowth(%)2116201714Corenetprofit(RMBmn)4,7556,8098,83310,71412,353CoreEPS(RMB)5.708.1610.5812.8314.80YoYgrowth(%)5.043.229.721.315.3ConsensusEPS(RMB)N/AN/A10.0712.3314.58EV/EBITDA(x)18.713.910.68.77.6P/E(x)34.325.019.816.314.2P/B(x)3.43.12.92.52.2Yield(%)0.81.21.51.82.1ROE(%)9.713.315.416.516.8Netgearing(%)NetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSource:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates