【行业研究报告】小米集团-W-Impressive earnings recovery in 1Q23; Reiterate BUY

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2023-05-25 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-05-25 12:10:42

25May2023
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
Xiaomi(1810HK)
Impressiveearningsrecoveryin1Q23;ReiterateBUY
Xiaomideliveredbetter-than-expectedearningsin1Q23despitechallenging
economicheadwinds,mainlythankstorecord-highGPM,improvinginventory
destockingandefficiencyenhancement.1Q23adj.NPgrew13%YoYtoRMB
3.23bn,5%/8%aboveour/consensus,whilerevenuewaslargelyin-linewith19%
YoYdecline.Lookinginto2H23E,wemaintainourpositiveviewonXiaomi’s
earningsrecoverydrivenbypremiumizationstrategy,efficiencyenhancementon
newretailsynergy,andimprovinginternetbusiness.Weslightlyadjustedour
estimatesandournewTPofHK$15.22isbasedonsame24xFY24EP/E.
MaintainBUY.CatalystsincludeEVprogress,newproductlaunchesandmarket
sharegain.
1Q23earningsbeatonbetterprofitability.Givenmacroheadwindsand
inventorydestocking,Xiaomi’sglobalsmartphoneshipmentdeclined21%
inventorydestocking,Xiaomi’sglobalsmartphoneshipmentdeclined21%
YoYandASPdropped3.1%YoYin1Q23,largelyin-linewithexpectations.
Bysegment,smartphone/AIoT/internetrevenuedropped24%/14%/1%
YoY.Thatsaid,GPMimproved225bpsYoYtorecord-high19.5%in1Q23
(vs17.2%in4Q22),thankstolowercomponentcostsandIoT/internetGPM
recovery.Inparticular,weareimpressedbysignificantinventorydeclineof
24%YoYand16%QoQin1Q23.Lookingahead,wearepositiveonits
businessrecoveryandprofitabilityimprovementinto2H23E,andweexpect
itsadj.NPtogrow22%/25%/76%YoYin2Q/3Q/4Q23E.
Keyhighlights:newAIteam,newretail,self-developedchips.Mgmt.
highlighteditsstrongcapabilityinAItechnology,anditestablishedanewAI
LabFoundationModelteaminApril,backedby1,200+AI-relatedR&Dstaff.
Inaddition,asaresultofgrowingsynergybetweenitsofflinestoresand
premiumizationstrategy,Xiaomi’snewretailstrategystartedtobearfruitand
itsaveragesingle-storeGMVincreasedbothYoYandQoQin1Q23.
Regardingrecentmarketconcernsofinvestmentinself-developedchips,
mgmt.statedthattheywillcontinuetheinvestmentintochipsinlongtermas
self-developedchipsarethekeycompetencyofitsproducts,suchasISP
chipsforcamerasandfast-chargingchipsforphones.
Earningsrecoverywellontrack;MaintainBUY.Despitenear-term
macroweakness,webelieveitsearningswillcontinuetomaintainYoY
growthin2Q/3Q/4Q23E,drivenbycostimprovement,healthyinventoryand
narrowingrevenuedecline.Weslightlyadjustedourforecastsandournew
TPofHK$15.22isbasedonsame24xFY24EP/E.MaintainBUY.
Upcomingcatalystsincludenewproductlaunch,EVprogressandmarket
sharegain.