【行业研究报告】绿城管理控股-反向路演纪要：高质量增长可期

Wemaintain"Buy",withTPatHK$10.00.On23May2023,weattendedthereverseroadshowheldby
GreentownManagement(the"Company")inZhuhai.WeexpecttheCompanytocontinuouslybenefitfromthe
changeofclientstructure,withrisingdemandfromlocalSOEs,assetmanagementcompanies(AMC)and
financialinstitutions.WeforecasttheCompany’s2023F-2025FEPStobeRMB0.464,RMB0.581andRMB0.708,
respectively,whichrepresentsaCAGRof22.6%during2022-2025F.Wemaintain"Buy"ratingontheCompany
withTPatHK$10.00,implying19.0x2023FPE.
withTPatHK$10.00,implying19.0x2023FPE.
IncreasingdemandfromlocalSOEs.WevisitedtheprojectofZhuhaiCuihuXiangshanInternationalGarden
(珠海翠湖香山国际花园)developedbytheCompany.Thisisasuccessfulhigh-endresidentialprojectfromthe
clientofalocalSOEinZhuhai,namelyZhuhaiJiuzhouHoldingsGroup(珠海九洲控股).Therearesome
takeawaysfromtheprojectvisit.1)ThisisoneoftheoneoftheearliestprojectsoftheCompanyinZhuhai,with
fivelandparcelsdeveloped,andthefirstsaleslaunchwasin2014.2)Mostofthepropertiesarehigh-end
Chinesestylevillas,andthecurrentASPisoverRMB80,000/sq.m.3)Currently,theaccumulatedsalesamountof
theprojectreachedRMB21bn,withaccumulatedmanagementfeeofoverRMB1bn,whichareboththehighest
intheCompany’srecord.4)Over30%ofvillabuyersarenon-local,duetoitsproductstrengths.Webelievethat
projectmanagementdemandfromlocalSOEsisstillholdingup,consideringthestill-dominantpositionoflocal
SOEsinthelandmarketthisyear.Actually,accordingtothemanagement,theCompanyhasalreadybegun
carefulselectionoflargeclientsofurbaninvestmententerprises.Thecriteriaincludes:1)highqualityoftheland
parcel;2)bettercredibilityofclients;and3)fullcoverageoftheservicescope.
Continuousbenefitfromthe"ensuringpropertycompletion"policy.ApartfromlocalSOEs,thecontracts
fromfinancialinstitutionsalsoincreasedfastthisyear.Accordingtothemanagement,newly-signedcontract
valuekeptstronggrowthin4M2023,atRMB2.68bn(+21.2%YoY),and21.8%camefromAMCsandfinancial
institutions.Forcomparison,thepercentageofnewly-signedcontractvaluefromfinancialinstitutionswas11.7%
forthelastyear.Theprojectswithfinancialinstitutioncooperationusuallyhaveshorterdevelopmentcycle.And
hence,duetomoreefficientuseofhumanresources,theseprojectsmayhavehighergrossprofitmargin.We
expecttheCompany’srevenuecontributionfromfinancialinstitutionstoreachabove20%forthenextfewyears,
whichwillpartiallyoffsetthemargindeclinefromgovernmentprojectmanagement,inourview.
Reliableguidanceonsolidgrowth.TheCompanyaffirmedguidanceofstrongcontractgrowth(>20%),profit
growth(>30%),highgrossprofitmargin(>40%)andhighdividendpayoutratio(80%).Consideringthe
Company’sleadingmarketpositionandincreasingdemandfromnon-developmentcompanies,webelievethat
high-qualitygrowthisreachablefortheCompany.