【行业研究报告】万科企业-4月销售表现稳健；加速获取更多优质土地

OverallsolidsalesperformanceinApr.,with28.2%YoYgrowthinsalesvolume.Recently,ChinaVanke
("Vanke-H",orthe"Company")announceditsApr.2023salesdata.Vanke-H’sApr.2023contractedsales
recordedanincreaseof8.5%YoYinsalesamount,reachingRMB33.5bn.Meanwhile,salesvolumerecorded
muchstrongergrowthat28.2%YoY,reaching2.1mnsq.m.AlthoughApr.salesperformanceslightlydropped
backcomparedtosalesinMar.,webelieveVanke-Hrecordedoverallsolidsalesperformanceinthepastmonth,
whichislargelyinlinewiththeindustrytrend.DuringJan.-Apr.2023,Vanke-Hrecordedtotalcontractedsales
whichislargelyinlinewiththeindustrytrend.DuringJan.-Apr.2023,Vanke-Hrecordedtotalcontractedsales
amountofRMB134.9bnandtotalcontractedsalesvolumeof8.3mnsq.m,whichrepresentsadeclineof1.8%
YoYandanincreaseof4.8%YoY,respectively.
FromMar.2023,Vanke-Haccelerateditsacquisitionsformorequalityland.Aftersluggishland
replenishmentinthefirsttwomonthsof2023,Vanke-HbecamemoreactiveinlandacquisitionsfromMar.2023.
AccordingtotheCompany’sdisclosure,inMar.2023,Vanke-HspentattributablelandcostofRMB8.5bnto
acquirefourlandslotsinNanjing,DongguanandGuangzhou.InApr.2023,theCompany’slandreplenishment
wasmoreactive,acquiringfivelandslotsalllocatedincorehigher-tiercities.Twolandslotswereacquiredin
Shanghaiduringthefirstbatchoflandauctionsthisyear,andtotalattributablelandcostwasRMB7.5bn.The
otherthreelandslotswerelocatedinNingbo,NanjingandHangzhou.Basedonourcalculation,thetotal
attributablelandcostspentinJan.-Apr.2023wasRMB19.2bn,79%higherthanthatinthesameperiodof2022.
Intermsofaveragelandcostpersq.m,thelandacquiredinJan.-Apr.2023wasmuchmoreexpensiveat
RMB19,677/sq.m.Actually,theASPinJan.-Apr.2023forVanke-HwasatRMB16,209/sq.m.Consideringthe
improvedlandquality(moreslotsinthecoredistrictsincorecities),weexpectmuchhigherASPinthefuturewith
bettergrossprofitmarginoutlook.
Vanke-Hmaintainedresilientearningsgrowthin1Q2023,whileGPMmayhaveseenthebottom.The
Companyrecordedstablegrowthinbothrevenueandattributablenetprofitin1Q2023.1Q2023revenue
increasedby9.3%YoYtoRMB68.5bn,whileattributablenetprofitincreasedat1.2%YoYtoRMB1,446mn.
Vanke-H’soverallgrossprofitmargincontinuedtodeclineat15.4%in1Q2023,downby3.4pptsYoY.However,
consideringthat1)theCompanyhasbookedasizeablewrite-downonpropertyinventoriesin2021-2022(total
RMB4.0bn);and2)theprogressivecontributionfromitsnewlyacquiredlandswithaverageGPMataround20%,
webelieveVanke-H’sGPMshouldhavealreadyseenthebottom.
Wemaintain"Buy",withTPatHK$20.50.WeexpectVanke-Htocontinuouslyimproveitslandbankqualityand
benefitfromtherevaluationofoperationassetsinthenextfewyears.WemaintainourEPSforecastsforVanke-H
atRMB1.768,RMB1.781andRMB1.809in2023F-2025F,respectively.Wemaintain"Buy"ratingforthe
CompanywithtargetpriceatHK$20.50.Thetargetpriceisbasedona20%discounttoour2023FNAV
estimates,whichalsoimplies10.2x2023FunderlyingPERand0.8x2023FPBR.