【行业研究报告】青岛啤酒股份-升级提产增厚盈利，百廿征程生生不息

Investmentsuggestion:WeforecastTsingtaoBrewery's(the"Company")EPS
toreachRMB3.38/RMB3.96/RMB4.42in2023-2025.Consideringtheaverage
valuationinthebeersectorandtheCompany'smarketleadershippositionand
growthoutlook,weset"Buy"rating,withTPatHK$114.00basedon30.0x2023F
PER.
1Q2023resultsbeatexpectations.In1Q2023,theCompany'srevenuewasup
1Q2023resultsbeatexpectations.In1Q2023,theCompany'srevenuewasup
16.3%YoYtoRMB10,706mn.Totalsalesvolumegrew11.0%YoYto2.36mn
kl.Mid-endandhigh-endsalesvolumegrew11.6%YoYto0.98mnkl.ASProse
4.8%YoYtoRMB4,531/kl.Shareholders'profitgrew28.9%YoYtoRMB1,451
mn,andcoreprofitgrew32.1%YoYtoRMB1,349mn,beatingexpectations.
Improvingproductmix.Premiumizationisavisiblelong-termtrendinChina's
beersector.OnTsingtaoBrewery's1Q2023post-resultsconferenceheldinHong
Kongon8May2023,accordingtothemanagement,theCompanyupdatedits
brandstrategyas"1+1+1+2+N",coveringTsingtaoClassic,TsingtaoDraftBeer,
TsingtaoWhiteBeer,TsingtaoOriginalBeer(shelflifeof7days)andTsingtao
DraftBeer(shelflifeof21days),andotherinnovativehigh-endbeerproducts.
Inmostregionalmarkets,expandingsalescontributionfromTsingtaoClassic
hasbeenthekeydriveroftheCompany'spremiumizationstorysofar.We
estimatethatsalesvolumeofTsingtaoClassicwillrise18%YoYin1-4M2023,
andcurrently,averageprofitshouldbeapproximatelyRMB1,300/kl.Meanwhile,
LaoshanispositionedastheCompany'scoremainstreambrandforthemass
consumptionmarketinChina.
Expandingproductioncapacitytorealizelong-termsalestarget.According
tothemanagement,1)Tsingtao'sno.2brewerycapacitywillbeupgradedfrom
0.7mnklto1.0mnkl,primarilytoproduceTsingtaoDraftBeerandClassic1903.
2)Tsingtao'sno.5brewerywilladdnewcapacityof1.0mnkl(phase1:0.6mn
kl),primarilytoproduceTsingtaoWhiteBeerandotherinnovativehigh-endbeer
products.3)TotalcapacityofmaltplantsinTsingtao'sno.3brewerywilladdup
to250thousandtonnes,securingadequatesupplyofqualitymalt.Inthelong
term,volumegoalforTsingtaoClassic/TsingtaoDraftBeer/TsingtaoWhiteBeer
issetat3-4mnkl/1.0mnkl/0.5mnkl,respectively.
Increasingprofitmargins.WeexpectTsingtaoBrewery'sgrossmargintopick
upfrom2Q2023duetomarginalreliefoncostpressure.Besideslowerpricesof
packagingmaterials,theongoingnegotiationsontheAustralianbarleyimport
tariffhasstrengthenedourassumptionsonthedownwardtrendofcostofbarley.
Moreover,fromacost-benefitperspective,themanagementwillcontinueto
optimizeSD&Aexpensecontrol.Goingforward,thereisstillplentyofroomfor
improvementinprofitabilityindifferentoperatingregionsfortheCompany.
Risks:unexpectedpricemovementinrawmaterialsandpackagingcomponents;
unfavorableweatherconditions;intensifiedcompetition.
Rating:Buy
6-18mTP目标价：HK$114.00
SharePrice股价：HK$76.400
StockPerformance