【行业研究报告】长城汽车-看好新能源转型！哈弗新能源核心增量！

Keywords:#risingmarketshare
InvestmentThesis
◼Promisingfutureforrenewablesindustryin2023withexplosivegrowthofhybrid
◼Promisingfutureforrenewablesindustryin2023withexplosivegrowthofhybrid
electricvehicles.1)Scale:undertheassumptionofstabledomesticeconomicgrowthand
supportiveauto-relatedpolicies,weforecastthewholesale/retailsalesofdomesticEVto
be9.68mn(+51%YoY)/8.04mn(+54%YoY),correspondingtoapenetrationrateof40%.
Subsectors(underPTImethods):weestimateEVsalestobe4.7mn(+19.9%YoY),PHEV
salestobe2.67mn(+159.2%YoY),andEREVsalestobe0.67mn(+139.3%YoY).2)
Structure:“2superpowerandmulti-weakpower”islikelytotransitioninto“2superpower
andmulti-greatpower”.Weexpectmarketshareofthetop9domesticEVenterprisesto
reach77%in2023(vs.62%in2022),whilethemarketshareofCR2(TeslaandBYD)
shouldremainstablewithaslightdecreaseto38%-39%,andthemarketshareofother
companies,includingLI,GWM,Geely,andCAHNGAN,continuestorise.
◼GreatWallMotor:frequentlaunchofnewvehicles&revolutionofchannelconstitute
marginalimprovements.1)Historyreview:strongsalesofHavalH6ledthemarketshare
increaseofentireHavalseries,drivingthelatestupwardtrendofGWM'sstockprice.2)
Competitiveness:GWMstickstothecorestrategyofintegratinghighertechnicaland
productpowerinthelongrun.Thelatestcyclereflectsthecombinationofself-innovated
full-stackenginetechnologyandpreciselypositionedSUVproductstowardscustomer
demands.Weexpectthebattery,motorandelectriccontrolsystemwithindependent&
controllablehybridtechnologyandnewproductsofHavalserieswithself-operated
channeltoleadthenextcycle.3)Corecatalysts:weexpectmaturetechnology,channels
revolutionandnewproductstobringsolidgrowth.Technology:developedrelativelyearly,
LemonDHTledtheindustrydevelopmentregardingitsmaturetechnologyandexcellent
performanceoffuelconsumptionparameters.Product:amongGWM'ssixbrands,oneis
transforming,twoisstabilizing,andtheotherthreearemakingabreakthrough.Havelis
targetinglargevolumestoaccelerateEVtransformation.GWMplanstolaunchPHEV/EV
productsin2Q23,enhancingitsmarketshareinthepricerangeofRmb100,000-200,000.
TankandPick-upsenjoyastableleadershipinthemarketsegmentwhileOra/Saloon/WEY
areabouttolaunchnewvehiclesfrom2Q23,coveringsedan/MPV&otherdifferentiated
categoriesandacceleratingEVtransformation.Channel:inadditiontotheexistingoffline
channelofOra/Saloon/WEY,GWMisabouttosetupanewEVsaleschannelsystem.
Openofnewstoreswithlaunchofnewproductsfrom2Q23arelikelytoaccelerateEV
transformationforGWM.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:Weestimatethecompany's2022-2024revenuetobe
Rmb137.4/202.6/274.2bn,andnetprofittobeRmb8.3/5.9/10bn(YoYgrowthof+23.1%/-
28.6%/+69.3%),correspondingtoEPSofRmb0.95/0.68/1.15andP/Eat34x/48x/28x
(peersaverageof21x/16x/14x).WemaintaintheBuyrating.
◼Risks:Lower-than-expecteddemandrecovery,stronger-than-expectedpricecompetition.
PricePerformance