【行业研究报告】光线传媒-动画电影龙头,AI时代价值重估

类型: 公司分析

机构: 东吴证券国际经纪

发表时间: 2023-05-30 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-05-31 14:10:48

Keywords:#newproducts,technologies,andclients
InvestmentThesis
◼Theproductionprocessoffilmandtelevisionisreshaped,particularlybenefiting
◼Theproductionprocessoffilmandtelevisionisreshaped,particularlybenefiting
animationmovies.Asacomprehensiveformintegratingaudio,video,andtext,thefilm
andtelevisionindustryisanidealapplicationsceneforgenerativeAI.Fromtheperspective
ofvalueandpathofAIapplication,weexpectanimationmoviestobenefitfirst.Compared
withtheone-to-two-yearproductioncycleoflive-actionmovies,animationmoviestake
moretime(3-4years)andaremorecomplex,withmoreobviouscapacityconstraints.We
believethatgenerativeAItechnologycanempowertheearlyscriptcreation,mid-term
painting,andfinal-stagevideoediting/dubbing/videooutputofanimationmovies,
breakingthecapacitylimitofanimationmovieproduction,andfurtheropeningthemarket
potentialbyincreasingthesupplyofhigh-qualityanimationmovies.
◼Re-evaluationofhigh-qualityIP:datavalueandderivativevalue.1)Datavaluefrom
0to1:Technically,high-qualitydataisnecessaryforthetrainingoflargemodelsandcan
bemonetizedintheparticipationoflargemodelsthroughrevenuesharing.2)Derivative
valuefrom1to100:Creatively,weexpectIPtobecomethestartingpointandcarrierfor
AIGC.ForfilmandtelevisionIP,weexpectittoincreasesubsequentmonetization
efficiencythroughgenerativeAItechnology,suchasacceleratingthedevelopmentof
seriesderivatives(suchasgames,toys,etc.),exploitingthederivativevalueoffilmand
TVcharacters(suchasmakinganimationprotagonistsintovirtualpeopleformarketing,
e-commerce,etc.),andproducingotherformsofcontentformonetization(adapting
animationmoviesintogames),thusimprovingthevalueofIPthroughoutitslifecycle.
◼BeijingEnlightMedia,animationmovieleader,islikelytobere-evaluatedinAIera.
(1)Weareoptimisticaboutthecompany'suseofgenerativeAItechnologytoempowerits
filmandtelevisionbusiness,especiallyinthecreationofanimationmovies,whileopening
themonetizationpotentialofexistinghigh-qualityIP.Thecompanyisdeploying
exploratorypracticesonAItechnologyinternallyandactivelylookingforthecombination
ofcontentcreation.IthasalsousedthelatestgenerativeAItechnologyinanimationmovie-
relatedwork:whenthecompanyannouncedinMarchthatitwouldlaunchtheanimation
movie"GotoYourIsland",itreleasedthefirstconceptpostermadewithMidjourney,
stablediffusion,GPT4andothertechnologies.(2)Asaleaderintheanimationmoviefield,
thecompanyholdsmanyhigh-qualityIPs(suchasNezha,JiangZiya,DeepSea,etc.),and
weexpectittoopenmonetizationpotentialintheAIera.WeexpectBeijingEnlightMedia,
asananimationmovieleaderthatactivelyembracesnewAItechnology,tomaintainits
advantageintheAIera.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:Werevisedownthenetprofitofthecompanyin2022-2024
toRmb-0.68/0.79/0.98bn,implyingP/Eat43x/35xin2023/2024.Consideringitslong-
termgrowthpotential,weinitiatewiththe"Buy"rating.
◼Risks:Lower-than-expecteddevelopmentofAItechnology&infrastructure,failureof
filmprojects,intensifiedmarketcompetition,contentreviewrisks.
PricePerformance
MarketData