【行业研究报告】中国海油-成本优势明显业绩可期，海上油气龙头央企迎来估值修复

InvestmentThesis
◼ObviouscostadvantageconstitutesthemaininvestmentlogicofCNOOC:lowcostis
thecorecompetitivenessofoilcompaniesandthekeytoimprovingprofitsandresisting
thecorecompetitivenessofoilcompaniesandthekeytoimprovingprofitsandresisting
oilpricefluctuations,enablingthecompanytomaintaintheabilitytoearnprofitsunder
lowandmediumoilprices.In2022,CNOOC'sfullbarrelcostwasapproximately
USD30/barrel,implyingasignificantcostadvantage.
◼CNOOCmaintainshighcapitalexpenditureandoutputgrowth:thecompany'scapital
expenditurefor2022wasRMB102.5bn,andtheplanfor2023isRMB100-110bn.In2022,
CNOOC'snetoilandgasoutputwas60.225millionbarrelsofoilequivalent,andthe
company'soilandgasoutputtargetsfor2023-2025are6.5-6.6,6.9-7.0,and7.3-7.4million
barrelsofoilequivalentrespectively,andtheproportionofoverseasproductiongradually
increases.
◼RichoffshoreresourceshelpCNOOCtomaintainsustainablegrowth:in2022,
CNOOC'sadditionalproductionaccountedformorethanhalfofthecountry'stotaloil
productionincrease.Thereservereplacementrateexceeds100%,anditsreservelifeis
maintainedat~10years.ThereservelifeofPetroChinacontinuedtodecline,andthe
reservelifeofSinopecwasmaintainedat~6years.CNOOC'ssustainabledevelopment
situationisleadingthethreemajoroilcompanies.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:WeforecastCNOOC's2023-2025netprofittobe
RMB140.665/130.968/131.603bn,indicatingP/Eof6.03x/6.47x/6.44x.Considering
CNOOC'sbenefitfromthehighlevelofcrudeoilpriceandproductionincrease,its
valuationisatthebottomwhencomparedwiththelargecycleofoilpricefrom2010to
2021,andobviouslylowerthanpeers.Inaddition,withthere-emphasisoftheSASACon
SOEs,wemaintainour"Buy"ratingonCNOOC(600938.SH)/CNOOC(0883.HK).
◼Risks:1)Economicrecession;2)Oilpricefluctuation;3)Fastersubstitutionoftraditional
oilwithrenewables;4)Economicsanctions.
PricePerformance
MarketData