【行业研究报告】中国石油-央企估值修复进行时，油气航母乘风起

InvestmentThesis
◼Nationalpoliciesdriveincreasedreservesandproduction,andwithoilpriceshanging
athighlevels,PetroChina'supstreambusinessisdevelopingsteadily.Policy:We
athighlevels,PetroChina'supstreambusinessisdevelopingsteadily.Policy:We
expectoilpricestoremainathighlevelsin2023.1)Supplyside:theglobalcapital
expenditureofupstreamresourceshaslimitedgrowth,andrisingoilpriceshavenot
increasedtheenthusiasmforglobalcapitalexpenditure.Russianexportshaveincreased,
butproductioncapacityhasenteredaperiodofdecline;someOPEC+countrieshave
reachedtheirproductionlimits;UScrudeoilproductionisgraduallyrecovering,butthe
increaseinoutputislimited,withanaverageannualincreaselowerthanpre-pandemic
levels.2)Demandside:globalcrudeoildemandhasnotyetpeakedandremainsina
growthtrend.Withpolicysupportandhighcrudeoilprices,PetroChinahasincreased
capitalexpenditureintheupstreamexploration,effectivelymanagingoilandgasoperating
costsandpushingtheupstreambusinesstowardshigh-qualitydevelopment.
◼Aspoliciesbecomestricteranddemandforrefinedoilproductsrebounds,the
performanceoftherefiningandchemicalsegmentisexpectedtoimprovewithan
expandingoverseaspricedifference.Policy:asChinaispromotingtheupgradefor
refiningcompanies,thegrowthinsubstantialrefiningcapacityisrestricted.PetroChina's
refiningandchemicalsegmentlookspromisingasithasseveralkeyrefiningandchemicals
projectsunderconstruction.Refinedoil:1)Domesticmarket:thepricedifferencebetween
gasoline,diesel,andcrudeoilhasreachedatemporaryhigh,whiledemandforrefinedoil
productsisrecovering.2)Overseasmarket:thepricedifferenceforrefinedoilproductsis
expanding,andtheexportquotaforrefinedoilproductsisincreasing.Weexpect
PetroChina'sdomesticandoverseasprofitsintherefiningandchemicalssegmenttorise.
Ethylene:Chinareliesheavilyonimportsofethylene.Asthecountry'sleadingethylene
producer,PetroChinahaslongadheredtoaninnovation-drivenstrategyandhasbeenthe
firstinChinatocompletetheindustrialtestofdirectcrudeoilcrackingtoproduce
ethylene,withaclearindustrialcompetitiveadvantage.Inaddition,refiningandchemicals
companiesarecontinuouslypromotingtheproductioncapacitylayoutofdownstreamnew
material,drivingdemandincreaseforethylene.
◼Withongoingreformofcentralstate-ownedenterprises,weexpectPetroChinatobe
re-evaluated.PetroChinahasexcellentearningsperformance,highconcentrationinits
mainbusiness,andfocusesonshareholders'returnswithhighdividendyield.PetroChina's
P/Bratioismuchlowerthanotherleadingpetrochemicalandchemicalcompaniesandis
expectedtoreturntoarationallevelunderfavorablepolicies.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:WeforecastPetroChina's2023-2025netprofitandEPSto
beRMB138.919/141.729/148.088bn(-7.00%/+2.02%/+4.49%YoY)andRMB0.76/0.77/
0.81,indicatingP/Eof8.13x/7.97x/7.63xandP/Bof0.78x/0.74x/0.70x.Weinitiatewith
the“Buy”rating.
◼Catalysts:Higher-than-expecteddomesticeconomicrecovery;favorablevaluationpolicy
forstate-ownedenterprises;ongoinghighlevelsofoilprices;increasedexportquotasfor
refinedoilproducts;strictersupervisionofconsumptiontaxonrefinedoilproducts;
declinedoverseasnaturalgasprices;accelerateddomesticnaturalgaspricereform.
◼Risks:Geopoliticalrisks;macroeconomicvolatilityrisks;slower-than-expectedrecovery
indemandforrefinedoilproducts;declinedoilprice;risingoverseasnaturalgasprice.
PricePerformance
MarketData