【行业研究报告】电子设备-半导体行业深度报告：海外观察系列十：从美光破净看存储行业投资机会

◼Enteringthesecondhalfofadownwardcycle,thestorageindustryislikelytoreach
aninflectionpointwithinthisyear.In2022,themarketsizeofglobalstoragechip
approximatedtoUSD133.4bn,accountingfor~23%oftheentireintegratedcircuitmarket.
Storagechipsarehighlystandardizedandeasilysubstituted,exhibitingcommodity
Storagechipsarehighlystandardizedandeasilysubstituted,exhibitingcommodity
attributes.Therefore,theirpricechangescanserveasanindicatorforthesemiconductor
industry'sbusinesscycle.Asmainstreamproducts,DRAMandNANDFlashhavea
cyclicalfluctuationperiodof3-4years.Thelastpeakoftheindustry'sprosperitywasin
21H2-22H1,andcurrentlyitisexperiencingadownwardcycle.Weexpecttheindustryto
recoverandresumegrowthwithin2023.
◼Withdemandstillincreasing,wesuggestfocusingoninvestmentopportunitiesfrom
consumptionrecovery,server,andcomputingpowerimprovement.Smartphones,
servers,andPCsarethethreemajorend-userdemanddriversforstorageindustry,
accountingfor~42%/~38%/<20%ofDRAM'sbitdemandrespectively.Theoverall
shipmentsofsmartphonesandPCshavepeaked,butthereisstillroomforimprovement
inindividualdevicecapacity.Serversbenefitfromthedemandforincreasedcomputing
power,areexpectedtocontinuetheirgrowththankstoemergingdownstreamapplications
suchasChatGPT.Thedevelopmentofthesmartautomotiveindustryshouldalso
contributetohighgrowthrates.
◼Withtheslow-downofsupplyexpansion,wesuggestpayingattentiontochangesin
capitalexpenditureofmajoroverseasmanufacturers.ForDRAMin2021,Samsung
(43%),Hynix(28%),Micron(23%)accountedforapproximately94%ofthemarketshare
(CR3≈94%).AsforNAND,competitivelandscapeisrelativelydispersed,withSamsung
(34%),Kioxia(19%),andWDC(14%)accountingforapproximately67%ofthemarket
share(CR3≈67%).Since2006,thecapitalexpendituresofMicron,Hynix,Samsunghave
continuedtogrowwithfluctuations.Attheendof2022,Micronannouncedasignificant
reductionofcapitalexpenditureby30%for2023,whileHynixplannedtoreduce70%-
80%.AsSamsungistheremainingvariableandacorefocusofattention,itsproduction
cutsareexpectedtooptimizethesupply-demandstructure.
◼MicronReview:the"ASP-Revenue-GrossMargin-StockPrice"transmission
behindstorageinvestment.Establishedin1978,Micronhasbeenanimportantdriverof
technologicalprogressinthestorageindustry.Throughacquisitionsinitshistory,the
companyhasnarrowedthegapwithSamsungintheDRAMfieldandhasachievedrapid
growthbydeployingnew3DNANDtechnologies.InFY2022,Micron'srevenuesfrom
DRAMandNANDwereUSD22.39bnandUSD7.81bn.ReviewingMicron'sstockprice,
wefoundthattheASPandgrossmarginofDRAMaredirectdrivingfactorsofthestock
price,andthecorrelationisstrong.Thecompany'sstockpricehasbeenunderperforming
SOXandNasdaqindicesforalongtime,anditsPBvaluationisatasafemarginof0.8x-
0.9x.Withstoragepricesbottomingout,weexpectthestorageindustrytoseeriseinboth
earningsandvaluations,drivinginvestmentopportunitiesthroughouttheindustrychain.
◼Recommendation:werecommendICdesigncompanies(Gigadevice,Puya,Dosilicon),
modulecompanies(ShenzhenLongsys,BiwinStorage,Techwinsemi),overseas
companies(Micron,ICMAX,Winbond,NanyaTechnology,Innodisk).
◼Risks：Lower-than-expecteddemandrecovery,greater-than-expectedovercapacity,slower
technologicalprogressamongdomesticmanufacturers.
Industryperformance
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