【行业研究报告】交运设备-汽车行业双周报：汽车板块持续修复，新能源车渗透率有望迎来新一轮向上周期

Theautosectorcontinuestorecover,andanewroundofupwardcycleonNEVpenetrationisexpected.Short-termsubsidypolicysupport-sinceMay,manyregionshavelaunchednewroundsofsubsidypoliciesforpurchaseofNEVs.CPCAexpectsretailsalesofnewenergyPVsinMaytobe580,000units,up60.9%yoy/10.5%mom,withpenetrationrateof33.5%.PenetrationrateofNEVswillcontinuetoadvanceinJune,andlong-termreplacementlogicofNEVsforFVsremainunchanged.TheindustryisreplacementlogicofNEVsforFVsremainunchanged.Theindustryisexpectedtoenterinanewroundofupwardcycle.Bothsupplyanddemandshowstrongupwardtrend,furtheropeninguplow-tiermarkets.Onthesupplyend,manyvehiclemodelshavebeenlaunchedbyOEMsrecently;onthedemandend,theexecutivemeetingoftheStateCounciladoptedimplementationofNEVsinthecountrysidetopromotetheconstructionofcharginginfrastructureandsupportthepurchaseanduseofNEVsinruralareas.TheincreasinglyclearpolicyorientationofNEVsalesinthecountrysideisexpectedtofurtherstimulatetheincreaseofconsumerconfidenceintheautomarket.Cost-effectivemid-tolow-endPHEVmodelswillboostsalesinlow-tiermarkets,whichfurtheropensuplow-tiermarkets.TheMinistryofCommercehastakenthreemeasurestoensureautomobilesgoabroad,andNEVexportsalesisexpectedtogrowrapidly.On25May,theMinistryofCommerceannouncedthreemeasurestoensurethatautomobilesgooverseas:(1)toenhancetransportationsafety;(2)toencourageOEMstocooperatewithdomesticandforeignfinancialinstitutions;(3)tosupportOEMstoimprovetheirinternationalmarketingandafter-salesservicesystems.OverseasdeploymentofNEVOEMshascontinuedtoachieveresults,andinternationalcompetitivenesskeepsimproving.Inparticular,self-ownedbrandsachievedsignificantgrowthintheexportsmarket.NEVexportsalesisexpectedtogrowrapidly.OpportunitiesintheautosectorlieinOEMsandcomponentscompanieswithbetterearningsperformance.FortheOEMsector,werecommendGeelyAuto(00175HK),GreatWallMotor-H(02333HK)andLiAuto-W(02015HK);forthecomponentssector,werecommendNexteer(01316HK).Risks:1)Industrycompetitionmayintensify;pricewarriskmayfurtherincrease;2)PVsalesmayfallshortofexpectations.汽车板块持续修复，新能源车渗透率有望迎来新一轮向上周期。短期受补贴政策支持，5月以来，多地区开启新一轮购置新能源车补贴政策。乘联会预计5月狭义新能源乘用车零售销量为58.0万辆，同环比增60.9%/10.5%，渗透率为33.5%。预计6月新能源车渗透率将继续实现增长，长期新能源车对油车替代的逻辑不变，行业有望迎来新一轮向上周期。供需两端双双发力，进一步打开下沉市场。供给端：近期车企众多车型密集上市。需求端：国务院常务会议通过新能源汽车下乡实施意见，推进充电基础设施建设，支持农村地区购买与使用新能源汽车。新能源汽车下乡政策导向日益明确，有望进一步刺激车市消费信心增加，高性价比中低端插混车型将助推下沉市场销量增长，进一步打开下沉市场。商务部三措施护航汽车出海，新能源出口销量高增有望延续。5月25日商务部宣布三措施护航汽车出海：一是加强运输保证；二是鼓励车企与国内外金融机构合作；三是支持车企完善国际营销和售后服务体系。新能源车企海外布局持续收获成效，国际竞争力不断攀升，尤其是自主品牌在出口市场获得明显增量。新能源出口销量高增有望延续。汽车板块机会在于业绩兑现能力较好的车企及零部件公司。整车板块，我们推荐吉利汽车（00175HK）、长城汽车-H（02333HK）和理想汽车-W（02015HK）；零部件板块，我们推荐耐世特（01316HK）。风险提示：1）行业竞争加剧，价格战风险进一步提升；2）乘用车销量不及预期。Rating:OutperformMaintained评级：跑赢大市(维持)