【行业研究报告】中通快递-Good execution but rising concerns on price competition

类型: 美股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2023-11-17 00:00:00

更新时间: 2023-11-20 10:11:58

17Nov202317Nov2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateZTOExpress(ZTOUS)GoodexecutionbutrisingconcernsonpricecompetitionZTO’srevenue/netprofitin3Q23cameinatRMB9.08bn/RMB2.35bn,up1.5%/21%YoY,onthebackofexcellentcostcontrolthatoffsettheASPdecline.Whilethefull-yearparcelvolumegrowthguidanceof20-24%YoYismaintained,the1.5pptmarketsharegaintargetisremovedasZTOchosetoavoidunprofitablevolumeamidthepricecompetition.WhilewecontinuetolikeZTO’sstrongexecutionandcostadvantage,weareincrementallyconcernedaboutapotentialtransformationofpricecompetitiontopricewar.Wethereforetrimour2023E/24E/25Eearningsforecastby4%/9%/9%,largelyonlowerunitgrossmargin.OurTPforZTOUS/2057HKisreviseddowntoUS$39.40/HK$309.MaintainBUYonvaluation.Keyhighlightsin3Q23results:Reportednetprofitin3Q23grew21%YoYtoRMB2.35bn.Excludingtheequitydisposallossandunrealizedinvestmentgain,theadjustednetprofitgrew21%YoYtoRMB2.33bn.Thegrowthwasdrivenby(1)2.2%YoYgrowthoncoreexpressdeliveryrevenue,(2)2.5pptYoYgrossmarginexpansionto29.8%,and(3)RMB207mntaxcredit.SG&Aexpensesratiowas4.8%(-0.2pptYoY).Parcelvolumegrew18%YoYto7.52bnunitsin3Q23,1.5pptabovetheindustry(+17%YoY).Marketshareexpanded0.3pptYoYto22.4%in3Q23.ZTOmaintainsitsfull-yeartargetrangeofparcelvolumeto29.27-30.24bnunits(runratein9M23:71%-73%/9M22:69%-71%).ASP-13.5%YoYin3Q23.ParceldeliveryASPdecreasedRMB0.19/unitYoY(-13.5%YoY)toRMB1.17/unitin3Q23,duetotheloweravg.parcelweight(-RMB0.04),lesscontributionfromKAvolume(-RMB0.08)andvolumeincentives(-RMB0.07).Unitcost-16.3%YoYin3Q23.Unitcostoftransportationdecreased11%YoYtoRMB0.43/unit,thankstolowerdieselprice(-RMB0.01),optimizedline-haulrouteplanningandimprovedloadrate.Unitcostofsortinghubdecreased10%YoYtoRMB0.27/unit,duetothecontinuedstandardizationinsortationproceduresandanincreaseinautomationlevel.Unitgrossdollarmargindecreased6.3%YoYtoRMB0.36/unit(butgrossmarginexpandedduetolowerdenominator).Majorriskfactors:(1)transitionfrompricecompetitiontopricewar;(2)slowdowninonlineretailsales;and(3)increaseindieselprice.TargetPriceUS$39.40(PreviousTPUS$42.70)Up/Downside63.9%CurrentPriceUS$24.04ChinaLogisticsWayneFUNG,CFA(852)39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkKatherineNG(852)37618725katherineng@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)20,561.4Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)24.252wHigh/Low(US$)29.44/21.52TotalIssuedShares(mn)855.3Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureMeisongLai25.9%Alibaba8.9%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth0.1%-2.8%3-mth-3.7%-6.5%6-mth-15.6%-22.0%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetRelatedreports:1.2Q23netprofit+41%YoYonexcellentcostcontrol;Full-yearmarketsharetargetachievable–30Aug20232.Bestofbothworlds–18May20233.Clearguidanceonvolumeandmarketsharetarget;furtherroomofcostreduction–17Mar2023EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue(RMBmn)30,40635,37738,36144,25450,555YoYgrowth(%)20.616.38.415.414.2Adjustednetprofit(RMBmn)4,754.86,809.18,532.99,737.911,311.8EPS(Reported)(RMB)5.708.1610.4111.6613.55YoYgrowth(%)5.043.227.612.116.2ConsensusEPS(RMB)na0.0010.9413.0215.51P/E(x)34.521.216.814.912.9P/B(x)3.42.72.42.11.9Yield(%)0.81.51.82.02.3ROE(%)9.613.014.915.015.6Netgearing(%)(21.3)(37.5)(35.7)(36.3)(39.2)Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates