【行业研究报告】招金矿业-Gold Price To Rise Again, Maintain "Buy"

WerevisedowntheTPofZhaojinMining(the“Company”)toHK$12.06
duetolowerEPSestimation,butmaintaintheinvestmentratingat
"Buy".OurTPrepresents36.0x2023PERand22.1x2024PER.Netprofitof
ZhaojinMininghasgreatgrowthpotentialin2024-2025andwillbedrivenby
highergoldpriceanddescendingminedgoldproductioncosts.
WeforecastnetprofitofZhaojinMiningtogrowlargelyin2024and2025
WeforecastnetprofitofZhaojinMiningtogrowlargelyin2024and2025
duetohighergoldpriceanddescendingminedgoldproductioncosts.
Weforecastgoldpricetorisein2024astheUSFederalReservetocut
interestrate.GoldassetsareofhighvalueduringtheperiodofUSFederal
Reserve’sinterestratecut.Descendingminedgoldproductioncostswillbe
anotherdriverofprofitgrowthin2024.
WebelievetheDescendingofminedgoldproductioncostsin2024-2025
wasunderestimated.Thedescendingofminedgoldproductioncostswillbe
anothermaindriverofprofitgrowthin2024-2025.In2023,thedeclinein
productioncostshavenotbeenwitnessbyinvestorsandminedgold
productioncostsoftheCompanyin1H2023remainedhigh.Webelievethe
descendinginproductioncoststoacceleratein2024-2025duetoexpanded
productionscale,especiallywhennewminescommenceproduction.
Catalysts:goldpricerise;theUSFedtocutinterestrateearly;financial
marketturbulence.
Risks:declineingoldprice;goldmineproductionimpactedbyexternal
factors.
Rating:Buy
Maintained
6-18mTP目标价:HK$12.06
Revisedfrom原目标价:HK$15.05