【行业研究报告】迪士尼-Streaming and ESPN+ on the rise

Streamingbreakeveninsight,withESPN+tobethelong-termengine.
WearepositiveonDTC’slonger-termsubstrend,backedby:1)continued
WearepositiveonDTC’slonger-termsubstrend,backedby:1)continued
strongcontentedge;2)moreAVOD&paidsharingefforts;3)bettertargeting
andrecommendation;and4)morebundleadoptionandsynergiesfromHulu
&Disney+.WeexpectDTC’ssubsat4%CAGRinFY24-26E,inwhich
2QFY24Enetaddsat5.5-6mn.Givenitscompetitiveprice,weviewample
roomforcontinuouspricehikeforcontentpick-upandindustrywaveofprice
increases.Mgmtguidedstreaming’sbreakevenby4QFY24E,withdouble-
digitOPMinthelongrun.ForSportssegment,wearebullishondigitalsports
TAM,withstilllowstreamingpenetrationbutstrongdemandfromsports
enthusiasts.Disney’sESPN+iswell-positionedtocaptureindustrytailwinds
withmultipleflagshipservicesandstrategicpartnersahead,including
formingaJVwithFoxandWarnerBrothersDiscovery,offeringastand-alone
option.
ParksasrisingcashcowtosupporthealthyFCF.Weexpectrevenue
fromUSparkstoacceleratein2H24E,whileinternationalparksatresilient
growth,withintroductionofnewattractions/events.Parkssegmentcontinues
tobeacashcowthatsupportshealthyFCF,asitcontributes~2/3ofGroup
OIinFY24E(>25%OPM).WeforecastParksOItogrowat10%CAGRin
FY24-26E.