【行业研究报告】汇量科技-Focusing on margin enhancement

18Mar2024
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
MobvistaInc.(1860HK)
Focusingonmarginenhancement
FY23resultswerelargelyinline,withrev+18%YoYandprofitatUS$19.1mn
(inlinewithourestimatebut9%aboveconsensus).Mintegralrevremained
resilientat+19.5%YoYin4Q23.For2024E,weseehighvisibilityforMobvista
toenhanceitsprofitability(forecastingbottomlineatUS$37mn,netmarginat
2.9%),withsolidtoplinegrowth(forecasting+20%YoY).Weexpectmidcoreand
hardcoregames’momentumtocontinue.Intelligentbiddingsystemupgrade
shouldbenefiteffectivelycategoryexpansion(e.g.,non-game),andROAS
systemshouldbringupsideinthelongrun,ifexecutedwell.Weliftourearnings
forecastinFY24/25Eby10%.MaintainBUYwithSOTP-basedTPatHK$6.0
(32x/26xFY24/25EP/E,witha21%earningsCAGRinFY24-26E).
In-lineFY23withimprovingmargin.Mobvistareportedin-lineFY23
results,withrev+18%YoY,1%/2%belowourestimate/consensus.Adj.net
results,withrev+18%YoY,1%/2%belowourestimate/consensus.Adj.net
profitreachedUS$19.1mn(+97%YoY),inlinewithourestimatebut9%
aboveconsensus.GPMimprovedto20.6%inFY23(+0.8pptYoY,vs.our
estimateof20%),mainlyonhigheradsefficiencyandcostdiscipline.By
segment,ad-tech/mar-techrevenuerose17.8%/23.9%YoYinFY23.
Resilientgrowthwithcategoryexpansionandupgradedsystem.In
4Q23,Mintegralrevgrew19.5%YoY,withrelativelystablepublisher&
customerretentionrate.Byappcategory,midcoreandhardcoregamesrev
surged66.3%YoY,withtheshareofrevclimbingupto29.1%inFY23(vs.
20.8%inFY22).Lifestylesegmentsawrobustgrowth,withrev+143%YoY.
Bygeography,EMEAandAmericasstillserveasthelargestrevcontributor
(46%share)withhighestgrowth(+25.6%YoY),boostedbylargeclient
expansioninEMEAandfurtherpenetrationamongSMEs.Chinamarket
stayedrelativelyresilient,withrevgrowthat+15.1%YoY.Lookingahead,
weexpectFY24Erev+20%YoY,withintelligentbiddingsystemupgrade
potentiallyhelpingtoexpandcategories(e.g.ecommerce).
Bettermarginoutlook.WeremainpositiveonMobvista’sLTmargin
outlook,withnarrowinglossofMar-tech,lowertrafficincentivestopublishers
andhigherproductivity.Adj.NMimprovedto1.8%inFY23(vs.1.1%in
FY22),andweforecastthisnumbertoclimbupto2.9%/3.0%inFY24/25E.
InFY24E,weexpectorganicbiztogenerate>US$50mninprofit,whileMar-
tech’slossshouldcontinuouslynarrow.
MaintainBUY.WeslightlyraiseFY24/25Eearningsforecastby10%,with
anunchangedTPatHK$6.0(byassigning20xFY24EP/Etoad-techbiz
and3.0xFY24EP/Stomar-techbiz).