【行业研究报告】舜宇光学科技-Expectations reset on conservative guidance; Maintain HOLD

22Mar2024
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
SunnyOptical(2382HK)
Expectationsresetonconservativeguidance;MaintainHOLD
SunnyOptical(Sunny)’sFY23netprofitwaslargelyin-linewithprofitwarning,but
2H23GPMof14.1%(vs19%in2H22)wasbelowexpectationsduetomoreintense
competitiondespitespecupgradeandmorehigh-endmodelsin2H23.For2024
guidance,whilemgmt.isconservativeonHCM/HLS/VLSshipment,Sunnyis
positiveonsmartphoneASP,high-endHLSramp-up,stableVLS/XRgrowth,and
betterGPMrecoveryin2H24E.WetrimmedFY24/25EEPSby35%/27%tofactor
inweak2023GPMandconservativeguidance.Tradingat34.8x/25.6xFY24/25E
P/E,thestockisfairvalued,andweexpectnear-termpressureonstockpricegiven
expectationsreset.MaintainHOLDwithnewSOTP-basedTPofHK$47.31,implying
25.9xFY25EP/E.
2023resultsin-line;lowerHLS/HCMGPMoncompetitionandcosthike.
SunnyannouncedFY23revenuedeclineof4.6%YoY,inlinewithmarket
SunnyannouncedFY23revenuedeclineof4.6%YoY,inlinewithmarket
expectation,drivenby-35%/+18%/-0.5%growthforHLS/VLS/HCM,inourview.
NPdeclineof54.3%YoYisalsoin-linewithitsprofitwarningearlier,dragged
bylowerHLS/HCMGPMduetoweaksmartphonedemand,intensecompetition
andcostpressurein2H23.
Conservative2024shipmentguidancewithbettermixandASPupgrade.
Mgmt.guidedfor2024shipment/ASP:1)HLS:5%YoYshipmentdrivenbyhigh-
endclientswithrisingASP;GPMtorecoverto20%(vs.10-15%/15-20%in
1H23/2H23);2)VLS:10%YoYshipmentwithsteadyASP;GPMtomaintainat
40%;3)HCM:flattishshipmentandASPrecoveryduetoproductmixchange
withmorefocusoncomplexproductsincludinglong-lensperiscope,internal
focus,largeimagesizeandactuator-lenssetintegrationcamera;GPMtoreach
5%+in2024.
Positiveon2H24E:High-endHLS,stableVLS/XRgrowthandbetter
productmix.Lookinginto2024,mgmt.expectedtofocusonhigher-margin
HLSproductstomaintaingloballeadingmarketshare.Forautobusiness,
mgmt.guidedVLSsalestoreachRMB2bninFY24Eandremainpositiveon
AR-HUD/LiDAR/lightsrisingpenetrationinnewautomotivemodels.ForXR,
mgmt.guided15%YoYsalesgrowthdrivenbyVisionPro’sencouragingimpact
andVR/MRsee-through/smartglassoutperformance.Overall,weexpectnon-
smartphone&betterproductmixtodriveGPMrecoveryin2H24E.
MaintainHOLDonfairvaluationafterexpectationreset.Weremainpositive
onSunny’stechnologyleadership,solidproductroadmapandApple/Huawei
exposure,andweexpectbetterGPMinFY24Edrivenbydemandrecovery,
betterproductmixandnon-smartphonegrowth.WelowerourFY24/25EEPS
by35%/27%tofactorinconservative2024guidance.Tradingat34.8x/25.6x
FY24/25EP/E,thevaluationisfairinourview.WemaintainHOLDwithnew
SOTP-basedTPofHK$47.31(rollovertoFY25E),implying25.9xFY25EP/E.