【行业研究报告】绿城管理控股-FY23 results in-line: >30% NP and 100% pay-out

25Mar2024
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
GreentownManagement(9979HK)
FY23resultsin-line:>30%NPand100%pay-
out
GreentownManagementdelivered+31%YoYgrowthinnetprofitinFY23and
offeredaspecialdividendforthesecondtimethatmaintainedthepay-outratio
at100%,representing8%div.yield.Wethinkcompany’scapabilityoftimely
businessrestructuringsupporteditsconsistentdeliveryofstrongperformance
amongsluggishpropertymarket,whichdeservesavaluationpremium.Maintain
BUYwithTPatHK$9.37,reflecting13x2024EPE.
NP+31%YoY,maintained100%div.pay-out.Companyreported
attributableNPofRMB974mninFY23,+31%YoY,in-linewithourforecast
attributableNPofRMB974mninFY23,+31%YoY,in-linewithourforecast
givenitseffectiveoperationalcostcontrolresultedinadecreaseinSG&Afee
as%ofrevenue(excl.D&A)(16%inFY23vs.20%inFY22)andlower
effectivetaxrate(17%inFY23vs.20%inFY22)asmoresubsidiaries
obtained“high-techenterprisecertification”thatsubjectedtolowertaxrate.
GPmarginwasstableat52%withthatforcommercialPJMdecreased2ppt
to52%asservicesscopewasexpandedforcertainprojectswhichrequires
assistancefromthirdparties.GPmarginforgovernmentPJMimproved4ppt
to45%duetooptimizedstaffevaluationmechanism.Investorsfeltcomforting
aboutthespecialdividendthatmaintaineda100%pay-outratioamidthe
lacklustremarket.
Guidedindustry-leadinggrowthinnextthreeyears.Companyguided
+20%and+25%CAGRforrevenueandNPinnextthreeyears,whichmay
outperformmostcompaniesinbroaderpropertymarket.Wearepositiveon
company’sabilitytoachievethistargetas1)+20%CAGRforrevenue
equalstoc.RMB15bnrevenueintotalforFY24-26E,whilecompany
currentlyhasbillablecontractvalueofRMB25bnwhichdoesnotincludea
newincreaseofc.RMB10bneachyear.Thedividendpay-outratiowas
guidedat80%.
Remarkableadaptabilitydeservesattention.Companyonceagainkept
itsgoodrecordontargetcompletiondespitethebleakpropertymarket
condition.Wethinkthecompany’sagilityinadjustingbusinessstructure
playedacrucialrole.CompanysteppedintoPJMforFIsandLGFVsinFY22
sincedemandfromSMDsdecreased,anditfurtherincreaseditseffortin
“homedeliveryguarantee”inFY23toalignwithpolicydirectives.As
residentialmarketiscontracting,companyalsoexpandedbusinesstonon-
residentialprojectwhichaccountedfor15%ofitsnewcontactinFY23.
MaintainBUYwithTPatHK$9.37.Welikecompanybyitsasset-light
model,highcashflowandhighdividendyield(8%asoflasttradingday)as
wellasrepeatedlyvalidatedtargetachievementcapability.OurnewTPof
HK$9.37reflecting13x2024EPE.Risks:propertysalesdrop,LGFV
default.