【行业研究报告】绿城管理控股-Undisturbed Growth and High Dividend Payout， Maintain “Buy”

Wemaintain"Buy"ratingandtrimTPtoHK$9.40.Weforecast
GreentownManagement’s2024F-2026FEPStobeRMB0.615,
RMB0.773andRMB0.950,respectively,whichrepresentsaCAGR
of24.1%during2023-2026F.WetrimourTPtoHK$9.40,which
implies14.0x2024FPER.Wemaintainour"Buy"rating.
Strong2023results;andpositivesurpriseon100%dividend
payoutratio.TheCompanydeliveredstrong2023results,withtotal
payoutratio.TheCompanydeliveredstrong2023results,withtotal
revenuegrowthat24.3%YoYandearningsgrowthat30.8%YoY,
amidthepropertydownturncycle.Thankstoitsstrongearnings
growthandcashinflow,themanagementdeclareda100%dividend
payoutratioforthefinancialyearof2023(80%asfinaldividendand
20%asspecialdividend).Webelievethehighdividendpayoutratio
broughtapositivesurprisetothemarket.Moreover,themanagement
guidedthatthedividendpayoutratioshouldbestableatabove80%
forthenextfewyears.
HighgrowthsecuredbystrongcontractedGFAexpansion.
AccordingtotheCompany'sdisclosure,GreentownManagement
achievednewlycontractedGFAof35.28mnsq.m.in2023,upby
25.0%YoY.Intermsoftheprojectmanagementfeeofthesenewly
contractedprojects,thetotalamountreachedRMB10.37bnin2023,
upby20.5%YoY.ConsideringthattheCompanyhastotal
unrecognizedmanagementfeeofoverRMB25bnbytheendof
2023,hence,weexpectvisiblegrowthintheCompany'searningsfor
thenextfewyears.
Projectmanagementisstillafast-growingindustry.Webelieve
thattheprojectmanagementbusinessisablueoceanmarket,which
isgraduallybeingconfirmed.AccordingtotheYihanZhiku(亿瀚智
库),thenewly-contractedGFAforprojectmanagementin2023has
reachednearly170mnsq.m.,increasingby53.0%YoY.
Catalysts:1)LargenewlyacquiredcontractedGFAfromurban
investmententerprises,AMCsandfinancialinstitutions;and2)
improvementinprofitabilityduetoeconomiesofscale.
Downsiderisks:1)Lower-than-expectedmarketpenetrationrate;2)
slower-than-expectedGFAdeliveryfromdistressedprojects;and3)
defaultriskfromprojectowners.
Rating:Buy
Maintained
6-18mTP目标价:HK$9.40
HK$9.60
Shareprice股价：HK$6.190