【行业研究报告】潍柴动力-Key takeaways from post-results call

27Mar2024
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
WeichaiPower(000338CH)
Keytakeawaysfrompost-resultscall
Duringthepost-resultscallyesterday,WeichaiexpectedtheindustryHDT
demandin2024Ewillbe~900kunits(-2%YoY).Ofthis,Chinademandis
expectedtofallby10%YoYto600kunitswhileexportsareexpectedtogrow
20%YoYto300kunits.WeichaiexpectstheLNGpricetostaylowdueto
oversupply,whichmayhelpboostthedemandforgasHDT.Meanwhile,high-
speedlarge-boreenginewillserveasanimportantgrowthdriverforWeichai.
WemaintainWeichaiasoursectortoppick.ReiterateBUYwithSOTP-based
TPofHK$22/RMB20.4forWeichaiH/A.
Keytakeaways:
IndustryHDTdemand.WeichaiexpectsChinademandin2024Ewilldrop
~10%YoYto600kunits,whileexportswillremainstrong(+20%YoYto
~10%YoYto600kunits,whileexportswillremainstrong(+20%YoYto
300kunits).Inthelong-run,theindustryHDTdemand(China+exports)is
expectedtobe800-900kunitsperyear.Weichaibelievesitwillbelesslikely
forthedemandtoreachthepeaklevelinpreviousyearsasconstruction
truckdemandwillcontinuetobeaffectedbyweakpropertyinvestment.
NaturalgasHDT.WeichaibelievesLNGpricewillstaylowasoverallgas
demandisweakwhilesupplygrowthisunderway.Therefore,Weichai
expectsgasHDTswillcontinuetoseeincreasingpenetrationgoingforward
(CMBInote:Weichaihad65%marketshareinHDTgasenginesegmentin
2023,+6pptYoY).
Fleetsizeofmedium-toheavy-dutytrucks.Atpresent,thecombined
fleetsizeofHDTsandMDTsreached~9.6mnunits.Ofthis,NESIIIorbelow
accountsfor900kunits.Weichaiexpectsthephase-outofNESIIItrucks
throughgovernmentsubsidieswillboostreplacementdemand.
HDTindustryconsolidation.Weichaibelievestherewillbeonlyfourmajor
HDTmanufacturersinChinaafterconsolidationinthelong-run.Sales
volumeofHDTscouldbe~150-200kunitsforeachofthem.
High-speedlarge-boreengine.Weichaihasalreadyachieved
breakthroughinthismarketandiscompetingwithCaterpillar(CATUS,NR)
Cummins(CMIUS,NR),MTUandLiebherracrosstheglobe.Theglobal
industrysizeoflarge-boreengines(500kWorabove)in2023was~80k
units(10%growthperyearinthepast).Weichaidelivered8kunitsin2023
(+38%YoY),withamarketshareof~10%.Drivenbythestrongdemand
fromdatacentreconstruction,thesizeoflarge-boreengineshasbeen
increasedto2MW,andwillfurthermoveupto3-4MW,accordingto
Weichai.Weichaialsoexpectsstrongdemandfromtheaftersalesmarket.
Thetotalindustrysizeoflarge-boreenginesisexpectedtoreachUS$20bn
globally.