【行业研究报告】-宏观视野：日本央行迈向货币政策正常化，将如何影响市场？

Economics|22March2024
Economics|22March2024
Analystcertificationsandotherdisclosuresonlastpage.ThisresearchreporthasbeencreatedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLtd.1
Smallbutdecisivestepstonormalizepolicy;likelymoreahead.TheBOJendeditsnegative
interestrateandYieldCurveControl(YCC)policythisweek,markingaclearshifttonormalize
itsmonetarypolicy.Despitethemedium-termgrowthchallenges,weexpectJapanese
cyclicalgrowthtoholduponthebackofmodestimprovementindomesticdemandgrowth
andaresilientglobaloutlook.Weexpectfurthersmallhikesinthemagnitudeof0.2-0.3pptlater
thisyearfromthestillultra-loosepolicystance.
BOJmovesshouldleadtoslightlyhigherJGByieldandastrongerJPYagainsttheUSD.The
initialmarketreactiontotheBOJ’sdecisionshassofarbeenmuted,especiallyinlightof
assurancesbytheBOJ.WeexpecttheresilienteconomicoutlookforJapancoupledwith
furtherBOJhikestopushthe10YJGBhighertowardsthe1%markbyyear-end,andlikelyslightly
highernextyear.TheBOJisstilllikelytostepintodampensharpermoves.AweakerUSDasthe
Fedembarksonratecutsin2HcouldseetheUSDJPYstrengthentowards140.
Unwindingofcarry-tradecouldexacerbatetheliquidityshortageintheglobalmarketalthough
thedirectimpactonAsiawouldbesmall.Weestimatethatshortyenpositionsareatahistorical
high,andthatalargepartofJapaneseoutwardinvestmentcouldbeunhedged,addingto
theriskofcarrytradeunwindingshouldtheyenstrengthen.AsrecentJapaneseoutwardbond
investmenthasbeendrivenbytheUS,weexpecttheunwindingofcarrytradetohavea
mutedeffectontheAsiamarket.
预计日本央行继续谨慎走向货币政策正常化。日本央行于本月结束负利率政策并取消国债收益率曲线控
制（YCC），迈出货币政策正常化进程的关键一步。尽管日本中长期的经济增长仍面临挑战，但我们预
计国内需求端的提振以及全球的复苏预期将支撑周期增长。我们预计日本央行下半年将进一步小幅加息
0.2-0.3个百分点。
货币政策的转向预计推升日本国债收益率和日元汇率。考虑到日本央行偏鸽派的表态，市场初时反应较
为平淡。尽管如此，我们预计经济韧性和日本央行的进一步加息将推动十年期国债收益率在年底前升至
1%，并有望在明年继续小幅上升。考虑到美联储可能在下半年降息推动美元走软，日元兑美元汇率有望
升向140。
日元走强和套息交易平仓可能冲击全球流动性，对亚洲市场的直接影响有限。我们估算，当前日元空头
头寸处于历史高位，而日本相当一部分对外投资没有进行对冲，这增加了套息交易的平仓风险。由于近
期日本的对外投资主要投向美国，我们预计平仓交易对亚洲市场的直接影响有限。