Economics|17March2024
Economics|17March2024
Analystcertificationsandotherdisclosuresonlastpage.ThisresearchreporthasbeencreatedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLtd.
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Creditgrowthreflecteddivergentsectoraltrendsandasoftstartofgovernment
bondissuance.Medium-tolong-term(ML)corporateloansincreasednotablyin
Feb.WeexpectMLcorporatelendingtobenefitfromthecapexwavefromlarge-
scaleequipmentupgrades.Ontheotherhand,MLlendingtohouseholdsisunlikely
toturnaroundquickly,despitecontinuedpolicyeasinginthepropertysector.As
policymakersbalancesupportinghigh-qualitygrowthandcurbinggrowingdebt
risk,weexpectTSFgrowthtoslowto9%in2024,whichremainssupportiveofChina’s
2024growthtargetof5%.
Weexpectgovernmentbondissuancetopickup.Governmentbondsupplyhad
asoftstarttotheyearafterstrongmomentumin4Q2023.However,proactivefiscal
policysuggestsgovernmentbondswillremainakeydriverofcreditgrowth.
Weexpectmonetaryconditionstostayaccommodative.Muchoftheupside
inflationsurpriseislikelytounwindinthenear-termasseasonaldemandforfood
andtravelfades.However,bothCPIandPPIinflationarelikelytopickuplaterin
theyearamidacontinuedrecovery.Monetarypolicysettingswillstay
accommodativetosupportdomesticdemand.Weexpecta25bpcuttothe
RequiredReserveRatio(RRR)anda10bpcuttopolicyratesin2Q.
信贷增速受行业差异影响,政府债券年初发行较慢则拖累社融总体增长。中长期企业贷款2
月增加显著。我们预计中长期企业贷款可能将受益于大规模设备升级的资本支出浪潮。另
一方面,尽管房地产行业政策持续宽松,但居民住房贷款增速预计仍在低位。随着政策制
定者希望在支持高质量增长和遏制日益增长的债务风险之间取得平衡,我们预计2024年社
融存量增速将放缓至9%。但这样的信用扩张步伐仍将支持今年5%的增长目标。
我们预计政府债券发行步伐未来将提速。继2023年四季度的强劲发行势头之后,政府债券
供应在年初放缓。但积极的财政政策表明政府债券仍将是信贷增长的主要驱动力。
我们预计货币政策将保持宽松。随着食品和旅行的季节性需求消退,大部分通胀上行的惊
喜可能会在短期内消退。但随着经济持续复苏,CPI和PPI通胀可能会在今年晚些时候回升。
货币政策将保持宽松,以支持内需。我们预计二季度存款准备金率(RRR)将下调25个基
点,政策利率将下调10个基点。